After some recent draft rumors suggested that popular Cubs draft targets, Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State and Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge (HS) may not be available when the Cubs pick at 21st overall, it begged the question, “Who would you take?”
Report: Sweeney is a rising prospect who sports top-of-the-line hitting data. Sweeney both hits the ball hard and also does not whiff often (87% contact rate). He is a likely 3B at the next level. Sweeney has a chance for an above-average hit and power tool.
Notes: Gavin Williams and James Triantos paced the way in this vote. Ultimately the upside of a frontline arm like Gavin Williams was too much to pass up.
Report: Williams shows off a top-of-rotation profile on the mound led by a plus fastball that sits in the mid-to-upper 90s. Williams also showcases a dynamic curveball thrown in the upper 70s to low 80s. His slider and changeup add in average third and fourth pitches that scouts feel should each be better with professional instruction. There has been chatter of concern over prior injuries, but a broken finger is hardly a long-term concern after 81+ dominant innings in 2021. His age of 22 may hold some teams back.
Notes: In a poll packed with a mix of high floors and high ceilings, the voters decided to side with the metrically amazing college bat of Aaron Zavala.
Report: Standing just 6’0″, the Oregon rightfielder put on a bit of a show in the NCAA Regionals when he drove a double deep into the damp Oregon night. Zavala has a solid, accurate arm that plays well in right field. Zavala has solid weight transfer and stays balanced through the hitting zone. There could be some improvements in hip rotation to minimize wasted energy (which should be cleaned up with professional), but it’s a short, compact swing. His batting metrics are exceptional.
The Final Selection!
Folks! The final “Who Would You Pick?” based on your votes in parts 1-3. Make sure to vote below on who would be your selection.
With the 21st selection in the 2021 MLB Draft, you selected (for the Chicago Cubs), Gavin Williams, RHP, out of East Carolina University. As you can see, it was a very close decision with all three possible options garnering significant vote totals.
Final Selection:Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina University
It’s been a blast to have the opportunity to analyze this Draft class as I’ve started Ivy Futures, and while it’s been successful, I’ve also learned a lot along the way to improve when I start next year’s rankings. Thanks for joining me on this journey.
Here it is, the Final Mock! Yes, there will be decisions that organizations made over the next few hours, but this is the mock I’m riding with as we head into draft day.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
Henry Davis, C, Louisville
The ultimate choice could be down to which player offers the best deal from among the Davis, Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawler, and Jack Leiter quartet. While everyone is going for Marcelo Mayer (and I think that’s a solid choice), I’ll project that Davis offers the best value with the safety and security of being the best college bat.
2. Texas Rangers
Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
The Rangers appear to be picking amongst Watson, Leiter, Davis, and Mayer. Timeline be damned, Leiter is the most talented player for many (though Mayer is as well). Here the Rangers get the most advanced college arm and one that could make his big league appearance in 2022.
3. Detroit Tigers
Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (HS)
The Tigers have had tremendous success targeting college talent and their board could skew so that Rocker, Davis, or a college outfielder could interest the organization. I believe the Tigers love Mayer. The young shortstop also offers a future plus hit tool along with a solid average or better defensive grade at a premium position.
4. Boston Red Sox
Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (HS)
With Leiter and Davis off the board, the Red Sox opt for Kahlil Watson who showcases impressive bat paths. His power is emerging and scouts feel he’s a great bet to hit at the next level. Brady House would make sense here too for many of the same reasons.
5. Baltimore Orioles
Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
Baltimore rocked many 2020 mocks when they took Heston Kjerstad with the 2nd overall pick in a money-saving gambit. Orioles GM, Mike Elias, spent his time in the Astros front office where Houston consistently employed that strategy (most notably in 2012 when they paired up Carlos Correa and used the savings for Lance McCullers). I expect the Orioles to do the same this season and have heard them connected with Cowser and Harry Ford. Cowser offers average or better tools across the board.
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6. Arizona Diamondbacks
Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS
I have it down to Jobe or Lawler and I personally think it could go either way based on this mock. According to Kiley McDaniel, the Diamondbacks lean Jobe in that scenario and I haven’t heard otherwise. The Diamondbacks land the top prep pitcher in the class.
7. Kansas City Royals
Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (HS)
The Royals have had the most success with high school hitters and college arms. The Royals also have shown success taking talented players that “fall” to them in the draft. Rocker, Lawler, House, Watson, all make sense and so could Jackson Jobe. They drafted and developed Bobby Witt Jr. into a budding star. Lawler has a similar profile and upside.
8. Colorado Rockies
Brady House, 3B, Winder-Barrow (HS)
Colorado has been willing to take a high school talent if the option presented itself, but is generally focused on going the college route in the first round. They have been most often associated with college players so far, but Brady House being available could change things for Colorado. This mock has Brady House who sports some hitting metrics related to bat path and max exit velocity that are very impressive.
9. Los Angeles Angels
Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork (HS)
The Angels are a wild card and could go in any number of ways. And the Angels have been in see Jackson Jobe (RHP; Heritage Hall, HS), Bubba Chandler (RHP/SS; North Oconee HS), and Frank Mozzicato (LHP; East Catholic HS). The point is that the Angels are very willing to take a prep talent here. I forecast the multisport South Carolina prep outfielder, Will Taylor, to be the pick. Taylor combines an athletic profile with excellent hitting data from the showcase circuits. The thought is that Taylor will require a higher price to buy him out his Clemson commitment to play baseball and line up as the slot receiver on the football team, however at this pick, the Angels would be in a good position to sign him.
10. New York Mets
Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge (HS)
New York has leaned prep talent in recent years building out a solid group in the lower levels of the minors. They also don’t factor age heavily into their draft model so Colson Montgomery who is already 19. Still, his above-average hit and power projections offer the upside of an above-average third baseman at the next level.
11. Washington Nationals
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
Kumar Rocker entered the year as a consensus top five prospect, but inconsistent results and waxing and waning velocity scared off some teams. The Nationals are very willing to take a risk in the hopes of landing an upside talent.
12. Seattle Mariners
Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (HS)
Seattle has been linked with college bats so far this draft cycle, but Harry Ford appears to be on the Mariners radar as well. Ford offers supreme athleticism, which mitigates the risk of taking a high school catcher early. By all accounts, Ford is a high character individual and would be a boon to any club house.
Ty Madden may be an option here as well. The Mariners had success with Emerson Hancock who entered 2020 in the 1-1 discussion before slipping to 6 with similar complaints about his fastball. Hancock has since soared up prospect rankings with a few pitching development modifications.
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13. Philadelphia Phillies
Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
Frelick may not have elite upside, but he looks like a fairly sure bet to make it to the majors where could succeed as a high contact centerfielder (or second baseman). His run tool is about a 65. I do wonder if he is moved around at the next level. He has logged time at 2B and SS in the FCBL summer league in 2020. The fact that he is more of a “sure-thing” and the lack of college bats makes it likely he ends up somewhere in the top 10, but sometimes the board falls a certain way.
14. San Francisco Giants
Matt McLain, SS/OF, UCLA
San Francisco has been connected to all of the college hitters (Frelick, Cowser, and McLain) along with Jordan Wicks this draft cycle. I still lean to them taking one of the college bats if they have that option. McLain gets overshadowed, but he really shouldn’t. While he doesn’t have standout tools, McLain is a very successful college hitter form a strong program. He combines on-base skills with some emerging power in a profile that should succeed at 2B (some scouts feel a team should run him out at SS).
15. Milwaukee Brewers
Trey Sweeney, SS, EIU
Sweeney is a big-time pop-up prospect who sports top-of-the-line hitting data. Sweeney both hits the ball hard and also does not whiff often (87% contact rate). Some organizations may shy away from Sweeney due to his program strength or just because they couldn’t get enough evaluators to see him to draft Sweeney high enough. Sweeney has a chance for above-average hit and power despite a swing that has a lot of moving parts. Milwaukee could also snag Jordan Wicks, who many regard as the top lefthander in the draft class.
Where is Benny Montgomery going? Keeping with the same plan from Mock 3.0: “With three picks in the first two rounds, Milwaukee has a lot of money to work with to handle tough signs. The team also had no problem taking a hitter with a challenging swing. Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee’s first round pick in 2020) was one of the most talented players in last year’s draft, but he slid due to a choppy swing. It’s rumored that Benny Montgomery (OF; Red Land, HS) could be a tough sign and he has a significant hitch in his swing that comes and goes. In this mock, the Brewers are in a position to save a significant amount of pool money with this pick (and take a affordable player in the comp round) before splurging on Montgomery with a later pick. Benny Montgomery has the potential to compete with Mitchell to determine who should man centerfield in a few years with top the charts athleticism.”
16. Miami Marlins
Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State
Will Bednar showcases top of the rotation stuff and Miami has shown the willingness to take premier pitchers who would still benefit from pitch development. Bednar’s fastball and slider both are plus pitches, but he could use some more refinement on his changeup, which is a pitch Miami is known for successfully developing.
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17. Cincinnati Reds
Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
Cincinnati has three picks in the first 35 selections and a value play here early could allow the Reds to do big things in this draft. While Hoglund likely doesn’t sign for much less than slot, he offers a solid floor once he returns from TJS rehab without breaking the bank. Cincinnati is in a good position to float offers to some of the upside high school talent to see if any slide to 30 and 35. I strongly considered Matt Mikulski here and may be kicking myself on draft day for changing the selection.
18. St. Louis Cardinals
Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami OH
Bachman’s fastball, slider, and bourgeoning changeup combo can be electric. However there are whispers that teams are scared off by his medicals, namely a hip issue. It’s hard to tell how much of that is negotiating leverage or real medical concerns. The Cardinals have been more closely linked with upside prep talent, but it’s hard to argue with Bachmann if a team feels comfortable with his health forecast.
19. Toronto Blue Jays
Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina
Williams only threw three innings in 2020 due to a broken finger and COVID-19, however he was dominant this past season including a dominant 7 1/3 innings, 7 hits, 2 unearned runs, with a 13/2 K/BB line in the Super Regionals against Vanderbilt. Williams showcases an exceptional fastball with elite velocity (95-99 mph) and movement patterns. His breaking pitches (curveball and slider are both plus and above-average respectively). His fourth pitch is his changeup and that is more inconsistent, but has been coming on of late. It flashes plus as well. Simply, Gavin Williams is coming and should be flying up draft boards. Recent communication suggested teams are wary of his injury history, but that is hard to track when teams were clamoring to draft Garret Crochet in 2020 after he threw 4 1/3 innings. The Blue Jays are also associated with a host of higher-upside players like Anthony Solometo, Jay Allen, Jud Fabian, and Joe Mack.
20. New York Yankees
Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama
Wilson is a solid, if unspectacular college bat offering a very high floor. Don’t let that dissuade any Yankees fans, Wilson’s lefthanded swing would fit in exceptionally well at Yankee Stadium. Greg Huss gives a great breakdown on Wilson.
Andrew Painter has been associated with the Yankees for awhile now as well. Painter trained at Cressey Sports Performance with Eric Cressey (Yankees Director of Player Health and Performance) as well. It’s possible that the Yankees try to find some slot savings here to try to sign Jaden Hill in the second or third round.
21. Chicago Cubs
Mike McGreevy, RHP, UCSB
I featured Michael McGreevy as a potential Cubs target since April. High school hitters are the most common demographic linked to the Cubs and I do think the organization is open to high upside selections, but I don’t think it’s a guarantee that it happens in the first. McGreevy profiles as a “command+” pitcher and he pounds the zone with a sinker that sits 92-95 mph. McGreevy also features a slider, curveball, and changeup as average or better pitches. McGreevy is a projectable guy at 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds who carries a high floor with optimism to hit a mid-rotation starter ceiling.
Michael McGreevy…. late bloomer to prime attraction. Shape and power, can manipulate and command. A jaunt down memory lane he reminds me of Michael Mercado (40th overall in 2017) albeit a more polished & advanced. Bieber effect in play. #MLBDraft21pic.twitter.com/7sU6DKFKCI
Other players linked to the Cubs include Trey Sweeney (mentioned above), Jud Fabian (OF, Florida), Will Taylor (above), Tyler Whitaker (OF, Bishop Gorman), Sam Bachman (above), Anthony Solometo (LHP, Bishop Eustace HS), and Jackson Linn (OF, Cambridge Ringe HS). James Triantos (SS, Madison HS) has also been linked to the team and is finally getting some national publicity. Triantos sported a 94% contact rate in the showcase circuit last year (tops in the class) with a similar max EV as Will Taylor, Harry Ford, and the aforementioned Colson Montgomery. He hails from Cubs area scout (and 2020 Stan Zielinski Scout of the Year) Billy Swoope’s territory. From Mock Draft 3.0, “If there’s one player who could be this year’s Nick Yorke (who was a surprise mid-first round selection), I’ll say it is James Triantos“.
22. Chicago White Sox
Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks (HS)
The White Sox have been all over high school players recently. Most notably the Sox have been heavy on Colson Montgomery and fellow prep SS, Max Muncy (no relation to the big-leaguer). With Montgomery off the board well before this pick, Max Muncy is the selection. Wes Kath (3B, Desert Mountain HS) is another name mentioned in association with the White Sox.
23. Cleveland Baseball Team
Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional (HS)
I do buy the Cleveland-Petty rumors that have been circulating for several weeks now. Once, Cleveland prioritized the “command+” profile pitchers like Plesac, Civale, and Bieber, but in recent years Cleveland focused on hard throwing prep righthanders. Petty may just be the riskiest player in the draft, but his stuff is lethal. Scouts question whether he is a starter long-term. Other options appear to be high school shortstops, Carson Williams and Edwin Arroyo (although possibly for a later pick).
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24. Atlanta Braves
Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
Madden is frequently linked to teams higher in the first round. On the surface that makes sense as he’s been very successful this season, including his recent College World Series performance. But there has been significant questions related to Madden’s fastball shape. His fastball has a movement pattern that some teams view as a ding on his resume. It’s a fairly similar profile to Cade Cavalli, who went 23rd overall, but was frequently linked to teams in the early teens. Cavalli ultimately went to a team who perceives things through more of a traditional scouting lens in Washington (which is one of the reasons they’ve been linked to Madden at 11). But that is all to put into context that Madden is a very good pitcher. He could provide great value to Atlanta here.
25. Oakland Athletics
Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
Jordan Wicks has been firmly listed as the top college lefty in the class during the draft cycle largely on the success of an above-average fastball (plays up due to deception) and a supremely impressive changeup. While his pitching metrics won’t blow you away, they’re solid and he’s polished. A team in contention, like Oakland, should expect him up relatively soon. The A’s could look at McGreevy as a similar profile. Additionally, Oakland has been tied to a number of prep bats like Whitaker and Kath.
26. Minnesota Twins
Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
Jud Fabian has otherworldly talent, but the Ks just kept piling up this season. Even after he made a mid-season adjustment, the Ks crept back. He settled in around 29% K% for the year, which is way too high for most teams. But Fabian is still a premier athlete and defender in centerfield with above-average to plus power. Minnesota has shown a willingness to deal with strikeouts at the expense of power before.
27. San Diego Padres
Lonnie White Jr., OF, Malvern Prep (HS)
Look for the Padres to take a player with impressive metrics (pitching or hitting). Lonnie White gets the nod here after he demonstrated some of the best batted ball data in the showcases last year. He reigned supreme in max exit velocity with a solid contact rate. His chase rate was 23% (a tad high, but not outrageous), which was similar to Jordan Lawler. Peyton Stovall out of Haughton HS in Louisiana could be another name to watch here.
28. Tampa Bay Rays
Conner Norby, 2B, East Carolina
Middle infielders with plus hit tools are right up Tampa Bay’s alley and Norby fits that to a tee. The Rays’ first two picks are in close proximity to one another so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them flip profiles at 28/34. If Trey Sweeney made it down to 28, I believe he’d be the pick.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers
Wes Kath, 3B, Desert Mountain (HS)
For years the Dodgers snagged talents that fell to them in the draft and let their player development infrastructure build them up into elite prospects and MLB contributors. The Dodgers love to take “hit over power” infielders and work their PD magic. Kath is an amazing example of this (along with Peyton Stovall) and could be a dynamo in the LA system. Gage Jump, Conner Norby, Alex Mooney, Tommy Mace, Ryan Cusick, and Ky Bush could all be names to watch here.
30. Cincinnati Reds
Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic (HS)
Jay Allen could go way higher than this and is in play starting in the middle of the first round, but Cincinnati is in a great position to move money around to offer him significantly more than he could get with a higher pick. The Reds have been rumored to be all over the high school outfielder group for weeks now.
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31. Miami Marlins
Spencer Schwellenbach, SS/RHP, Nebraska
Schwellenbach is one of the dynamic two-way players in this class. Unlike the majority of the big names (Montgomery, Jobe, Chandler), Schwellenbach is already in college where he served as SS and closer for Nebraska. Miami has been linked to higher upside players in this class and their pitching infrastructure puts the Marlins in a great position to build out Schwellenbach’s repertoire.
32. Detroit Tigers
Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian (HS)
Detroit should still have considerable funds to take another big swing after picking third overall. They’ve been tied to prep SS Alex Mooney, who could be available here as well. Here the Tigers pick up Painter to add to their future pitching options.
33. Milwaukee Brewers
Aaron Zavala, OF, Oregon
Brewer scouts were all over Aaron Zavala at the NCAA regionals in Eugene and he showed off a solid swing at the dish. His name has been creeping up boards in recent weeks. He dealt with a shoulder injury earlier in the season, but looked impressive in his return. His swing is geared towards teams that place a heavy emphasis on hitting models.
34. Tampa Bay Rays
Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace (HS)
I’ve had Tampa Bay linked to Solometo since the first mock draft so there’s no sense in deviating now. Solometo is a LHP with a funky arm action from the Northeast. The Rays haven’t shied away from any component of that profile before. Tampa Bay places added value on incorporating different looks from their pitching staff. Solometo is primarily a two-pitch guy and could stand to improve his changeup, but that’s hardly an unusual statement about cold-weather arms. The Rays brass has been spotted at several games for fellow northeast prep, Joshua Baez, and he could be in play for TB.
35. Cincinnati Reds
Malakhi Knight, OF, Marysville-Getchell (HS)
The Reds have been all over prep high school outfielders and there are rumors that James Wood may not be reasonably signable. Cincinnati had a surprisingly big scouting presence in to see Knight recently so this is a shot in the dark. He could certainly be a second or third round target.
36. Minnesota Twins
Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East (HS)
Mack could easily be an earlier selection in the first round, but if he makes it down to here, Minnesota should consider themselves lucky. The Twins are often associated with college bats, but having taken one earlier they can take the prep catcher with the best likelihood of staying at the position in the class.
“What is the optimal strategy in this year’s draft for the Cubs?”
There are countless different “ideal options” in the current landscape of the MLB Draft. Since the first year of the 10-round bonus pool draft format in 2012, we’ve seen teams be creative in how they stretch their imposed financial constraints to get the most talent out of the draft. For a breakdown in how the 2021 draft operates, check out the Chicago Cubs Draft Primer, but here’s a quick summary.
Since these bonus allotments aren’t fixed (only a guideline), the draft is really separated into two drafts. The first 10 rounds becomes its own beast with teams strategically drafting certain players to “save money” for higher priced picks. Often, this involves drafting players in the latter half of the first 10 rounds who are seniors in college and lack leverage in negotiations.”
Ivy Futures Draft Primer
A special thanks to David Elliott (@Davidrelliott) for the suggestion for the article
Disclaimer: I reference the signability of players casually, but these conjectures are based entirely on speculation and reports by draft analysts. No financial figure should be interpreted as a specific figure or information gathered from a player or advisor.
Round 1, Pick 21: James Triantos, SS, Madison HS
Slot figure $3,132,300; approximate signing $2.7 million Savings $432,300 Report: I previously wrote that if any player in this draft provided a profile similar to last year’s surprise first-round pick, Nick Yorke, that it was Triantos. Additionally, I believe James Triantos ranks high on the Cubs board. This is far from the consensus, but in this scenario, Triantos offers an a slot savings deal while bringing in a player that had some of the strongest batted-ball data on last year’s showcase circuit. Triantos is from Cubs area scout Billy Swoop’s territory and he’s rising on draft boards. Ultimately, more scouts view him as a SS/3B long-term. He may be the best high school hitter to come out of Virginia in the past five years, according to Prospects Live’s Draft Director, Joe Doyle.
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Round 2, Pick 56: Jackson Linn, OF, Cambridge Rindge and Latin
Slot figure $1,276,400; approximate signing $1.8 million Savings -$523,600 Report: With the money saved from the pick at 21, the Chicago Cubs take a chance at another rising high school bat, Jackson Linn. The outfielder produced big time exit velocities at the MLB Draft Combine. He is a power bat that also shows off a plus-plus arm (hit 98 mph off the mound). He has a smooth easy stroke with a consistent hitting pattern. The Cambridge Rindge and Latin player has teams interested in the second and third rounds, with Baltimore at 41 offering a high water mark for him. This mock sends Linn to the Cubs for the 41st pick’s value.
Round 3, Pick 93: Grant Holman, RHP, California
Slot Figure $627,900; approximate signing $500k Savings $127,900 Report: California’s Grant Holman is an upside prospect in this year’s draft. He is a recent convert to pitching and utilizing a long extension (over 7′), which boosts the perceived velocity (the ball looks faster to the hitter because the ball is released closer to the plate) on the pitch. His secondaries don’t play as well as his 92-95 fastball, but his split-change and slider show flashes of being better than average. The fastball incorporates heavy sink on the pitch, which is a fastball characteristic the Cubs have historically liked. This is another selection where the Cubs invest in a large, athletic player who boasts characteristics they like and features an impressive ceiling.
Round 4, Pick 123: Denzel Clarke, OF, Cal State Northridge
Report: Clarke is a name on the rise after his stellar performance at the MLB Draft Combine. He is a big power/speed threat at the next level. And he uses that speed to be a strong centerfielder (Big West’s Co-Defensive Player of the Year in 2021). Clarke’s power is still raw, but it appears after his performance in the MLB Draft Combine, that he’s starting to realize that power. Clarke is a mammoth of a man, standing 6’5″ and 220 pounds. He’s gaining a lot of buzz and should go on day two of this year’s draft.
Round 5, Pick 153: Rohan Handa, LHP, Yale
Slot Figure $343,400; approximate signing $343,400 Savings $0 Report: The Hartford Courant put out an incredible article on Handa who is a big-time pop-up arm. The Yale pitcher remade himself this past season and is intriguing teams with upper 90s velocity and plus slider. No one knows where to place him in the draft, but with the interest in Handa, a team is likely going to need to take him relatively early even if it is just a bullpen profile. The Cubs invested in power lefty arms in last year’s draft (Carraway and Luke Little) and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them do it again this season.
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Round 6, Pick 184: Garrett Horn, LHP, Glenn HS
Slot Figure $263,700; approximate signing $563,700 Savings -$300,000 Report: In the past several year’s the Cubs have leaned heavily on prep pitching in North Carolina. Horn may not be a familiar name but he’s a 6’2″, projectable lefthander who throws five pitches with his four seam (90-95 mph), curveball (77-81 mph), circle changeup (low to mid 80s), and cutter (87-91 mph) his primary pitches. He will mix in a two-seam fastball. Horn recently had a successful showcase at the MLB Draft Combine and I believe he’ll be on teams’ radars, including the Cubs.
Round 7, Pick 214: Wyatt Hendrie, C, San Diego State
Slot Figure $206,500; approximate signing $56,500 Savings $150,000 Report: Hendrie was the lone pick in the first ten-rounds of the draft to not sign with the Cubs during Theo Epstein’s tenure. Some believe that Hendrie’s failed signing was the sole reason for Theo Epstein to leave the club over a year later. Those aren’t people you should associate with without witnesses. Hendrie looks like a future back-up catcher with more upside. He’s a rare hitter who has almost as many walks as strikeouts and his defense looks above-average behind the plate. He may never hit for much power, but Hendrie should have success at the next level.
Round 8, Pick 244: Michael Kirian, LHP, Louisville
Slot Figure $168,500; approximate signing $168,500 Savings $0 Report: It was almost a rite of passage for a Louisville pitcher to be selected by the Chicago Cubs in the draft. Here the Cubs select a giant lefty (6’6″, 230 pounds) who still needs considerable mechanical refinement and pitch development. The Cubs have invested heavily in their high performance and performance science infrastructure and have the foundation to develop Kirian either as a starter or in the pen.
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Round 9, Pick 274: Brett Harris, 3B, Gonzaga
Slot Figure $152,300; approximate signing $52,300 Savings $100,000 Report: Brett Harris is a classic “senior sign” player from a solid program. He performed well this past season and, per scouts, showed good makeup with his teammates. At the NCAA Regionals, multiple scouts from the Oakland A’s were impressed with Harris. The defense wasn’t spectacular in that outing, but he’s a steady bat.
Slot Figure $143,900; approximate signing $43,900 Savings $100,000 Report: The Cubs were heavily linked to East Carolina’s Alec Burleson (1B) in last year’s draft before the Cardinals nabbed him in the third round. They then landed Matt Mervis in the post-draft free agency period. After year’s of avoiding the profile, I believe the Cubs see value in college first basemen. Griffin Doersching’s 20 home runs and his improving performance warrant a serious look.
Bonus Pool
Spending: $6,728,300 Savings: $51,100 Savings plus 5% overage: $390,070
Savings can be used to offer above the $125,000 threshold for players in rounds 11-20. Effectively the Cubs could bring in several $250,000 players in the later rounds since only the funds above $125,000 are counted against the pool. The Cubs did this in 2018 to great success.
Parting thoughts
Ten-round mock drafts are not built to be accurate exercises, but they are fun. It will be fascinating to see who the Cubs target early in this draft. This mock incorporates a few player demographics and qualities that I hope the Cubs target: high school talent, upside college players, premier athletes, and an emphasis on high performance/performance science.
“With the 56th selection in the 2021 MLB (Prospects Live) First-Year Player Draft, the Chicago Cubs select…”
Greg Zumach
Last summer, as the major sports had ground to a halt due to the COVID-19 pandemic and baseball players and owners were locked in a negotiation standstill, the only baseball event which continued to be held on schedule was the MLB Draft. Fortunately, if any event in baseball could lift my spirits, it would be the Draft. I’ve gone on record that my favorite day of the year is the first day of the MLB Draft. While my wife doesn’t like to hear such talk around the holidays, I stand behind it.
Since 2001 (the Mark Prior draft), I’ve followed the Draft and have done so passionately for over a decade. So when sports became more fantasy than reality last summer, I experienced a brief moment of normality, even if it was one-eighth the length of a standard Draft.
Prospects Live began in 2018, and I started to follow them in early 2020. As a free resource, I found their prospect and draft analysis to be quite robust and well-written. Now it’s become a go-to publication with content that matches up with any in the industry. What has now become an annual event is their Prospects Live Mock Draft, where writers, analysts, and other Draft gurus join in drafting for their respective teams in a streamed event. As of this writing, Prospects Live’s 2020 Mock Draft has over 4,100 views on YouTube. I’m reasonably sure I account for at least ten of those.
It was a thrill to be able to participate in this year’s event. And I want to take a moment to thank Bryan Smith of Bleacher Nation, who served as General Manager (GM) picking for the Chicago Cubs. He was very generous in including me in the process as “Scouting Director”. You can watch the entire Mock Draft here. Here’s a behind-the-scenes look at the Cubs selections.
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Draft Prep
In the week lead-up to the Mock, Bryan and I compiled our boards before meeting. My draft board leading into this week included 85 profiles, with 150 players ranked in total. Bryan had viewed video/ranked over 75 players. Since the Cubs were drafting at the 21st and 56th selections, we were in great shape to cover both picks. The day before the Mock, we met to hammer out a board and talk about players where our opinions diverged. We planned to collaborate on both picks with Bryan hopping on to the stream for pick 21 and me for pick 56.
Draft Day
Diverging Opinions
One player that was sure to garner mixed emotions was Florida centerfielder, Jud Fabian. To be clear, both Bryan and I rank Fabian within our top 30 prospects but acknowledge his strikeout concerns (29% K%). The upside of Fabian, though, is undeniable, and since we were picking at 21 for the Cubs, he was a player we needed to consider. So while both Bryan and I were not completely sold, I gave him a pitch in case, as GM, he wanted to make that selection:
“You could speak to: Justin Stone, [Fabian’s] other qualities (abv-avg defense in CF, plus power), and his mid-season swing adjustment (from 4/6-5/15, he had a 16% K%). So if you believe you can get him back to that, you have an upper-echelon player. The Cubs have made investments in the player development infrastructure; it’s time to make a pick with high performance and performance science at the forefront of the selection.”
Man of Mystery
A late addition to my board has been James Triantos, a SS (and RHP) out of Madison HS in Virginia. Triantos (SS, Madison HS) deserves some more publicity. His contact rate of 94% contact rate topped prep players in the showcase circuit last year with a similar max EV as Will Taylor, Harry Ford, and Colson Montgomery. Traintos has quite an arm and has good run times. He hails from Cubs area scout (and 2020 Stan Zielinski Scout of the Year) Billy Swoope’s territory. I also don’t think it would surprise me to hear the Cubs very interested in Triantos with an early selection. From my latest mock: “If there’s one player who could be this year’s Nick Yorke (who was a surprise mid-first round selection), I’ll say it is James Triantos.” Bryan and I spent a good bit of time analyzing his swing and video before agreeing that we planned to consider him at pick 56.
GM Bryan Smith in action picking at 21
21st Selection: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State
Our shortlist of available players heading into pick 21 included (in no particular order): Ryan Cusick (RHP, Wake Forest), Jud Fabian, Will Bednar (RHP, Mississippi State), and Colson Montgomery (SS, Southridge High School). Ultimately, Will Bednar was too good to pass up. He ranked 12th on my board and similar for Bryan. Bryan locked in the pick on the Prospects Live Mock google doc. Bednar’s key qualities match up well with qualities the Cubs have gravitated towards in recent years.
Bednar brings a low-to-mid 90s fastball (tops at 95) along with an above-average slider and a solid curve and changeup. The fastball has late arm-side life, which benefits overall pitch movement, but can cause him to miss to his arm side (inside to righties). His slider is his best secondary with a good sharp break. The curveball and changeup are a tad behind his other offerings. However, this is a four-pitch pitcher with a starter’s build from the SEC. Even more, Bednar boasts good extension, which is a metric that some teams (like the Cubs) focus on in their draft models. The selection happens around the 1:48:00 mark in the stream.
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56th Selection: James Triantos, SS, Madison High School
Our second-round selection was the most challenging. As Bryan and I reconvened at pick 50 to hammer out our selection, we had a larger group of players on our boards. The top four players in our rankings were Thatcher Hurd (RHP, Mira Costa HS), Josh Hartle (LHP, Reagan HS), Andrew Abbott (LHP, Virginia), and James Triantos (SS, Madison HS). Other players considered for the pick included Ben Kudrna (RHP, Blue Valley Southwest HS), Ian Moller (C, Dubuque Wahlert HS), Ky Bush (LHP, St. Mary’s College), and Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP/SS, Nebraska). After we selected Bednar in the first round, Bryan and I discussed who we preferred at pick 56. I am an enormous fan of both Thatcher Hurd and Josh Hartle, who I profiled as ideal Cubs pitching targets. However, Bryan agreed that we had an opportunity to have a fun selection and one that both matches up with Cubs’ drafting tendencies and that could generate some great discussion. Bryan was gracious to let me make the selection and hop on the video to discuss our mystery man and rising prospect, James Triantos. The selection happens around the 3:58:00 mark.
Wrap Up and Next Steps
Ultimately I loved who we brought in during our two picks in this mock. Both Bednar and Triantos represent players that match skills and metrics that the Cubs organization has targeted in prior drafts. I can’t wait for the actual MLB Draft, where we can dive into 20 rounds of talent. Greg Huss, Jimmy Nelligan, and I will be hosting this year’s MLB Draft Special on The Rant Live, beginning with the first pick and continuing about 30 minutes after the Cubs selection. And once the 2021 Draft ends, I’ll be turning my attention to the next class of Draft prospects. In between, you’re going to see a lot more Cubs minor league content.
It’s been a blast to have the opportunity to analyze this Draft class as I’ve started Ivy Futures, and while it’s been successful, I’ve also learned a lot along the way to improve when I start next year’s rankings. Thanks for joining me on this journey.
So much of this draft season is still in flux and rumors are flying fast. It is sometimes hard to differentiate real intel from info put out by teams as a smokescreen. This mock is a projection of where things will stand in July and covers the entire first round and competitive balance round A (36 picks in all). There will be a few surprises in this mock, because surprises happen every year during the draft. These picks are still held to the same standard that I attempt to employ: source information, match organization trends, and mirror historical picks. I’ll make one more mock draft for IvyFutures.com that should come out prior to the draft.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
Henry Davis, C, Louisville
There’s a significant amount of chatter the Pirates will take the player who offers the best deal from among the Davis, Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawler, and Jack Leiter quartet. Ultimately that is likely Henry Davis, who not only could succeed at catcher, but has the type of bat that allows a team to seriously consider playing him in the outfield. Davis is no consolation prize. He’s more than qualified to be the number one overall pick this season.
2. Texas Rangers
Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (HS)
The Rangers have had a significant presence at Kahlil Watson’s more recent performances. It’s hard to tell whether that is related to North Carolina’s season just simply running later or whether it’s real heat for Watson in particular. But Watson has been coming on strong and is a great bet to hit long-term. His steep bat path offers solid power and hit tools at the next level.
3. Detroit Tigers
Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (HS)
The Tigers have had tremendous success targeting college talent and their board could skew so that Rocker, Davis, or a college outfielder could interest the organization. However it’s been speculated that the Tigers love Mayer. It’s not hard to imagine Detroit being willing to pay a price to get the stud shortstop at third in the draft. Some projections identify Mayer as having the best hit tool in the class (I still have Peyton Stovall as slightly better than Mayer). The young shortstop also offers a future solid average or better defensive grade.
4. Boston Red Sox
Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
The Fangraphs duo of Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein noted rumors of Jack Leiter trying to land in Boston and the Red Sox being all too willing to make that happen. I very much buy that chatter. At some point Leiter may not have much to improve upon like some teams may want, but his floor is already so high. There is still some room for improvement, especially related to his curveball. He could be up in the Red Sox rotation sometime in 2022 and he still has a legitimate argument to be the top college arm since Stephen Strasburg.
5. Baltimore Orioles
Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (HS)
Baltimore rocked many 2020 mocks when they took Heston Kjerstad with the 2nd overall pick in a money-saving gambit. Orioles GM, Mike Elias, spent his time in the Astros front office where Houston consistently employed that strategy (most notably in 2012 when they paired up Carlos Correa and used the savings for Lance McCullers). I expect the Orioles to do the same this season and have heard them connected with Harry Ford. This may be the high point for Ford (I haven’t heard him associated any higher). Ford offers an exciting array of tools. The biggest question for teams is whether to play him at catcher or let him move quicker at another position. He has the athleticism and bat to succeed all around the diamond.
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6. Arizona Diamondbacks
Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (HS)
Arizona can be very prep heavy, but unlike several teams, age doesn’t have as much weight into their draft model with selections like Bryce Jarvis, Brennan Malone, and Drey Jameson all slightly older than their classmates. Enter Jordan Lawler who is also a strong bet to stay at shortstop for a long time though will be almost 19 when the draft arrives. While it may surprise some to see Lawler fall to six, it’s a very real possibility. Arizona was heavily tied to shortstops in the 2020 draft and you can bet they’d run to the podium for this selection.
7. Kansas City Royals
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
The Royals have had the most success with high school hitters and college arms. The Royals also have shown success taking talented players that “fall” to them in the draft. Rocker, House, Watson, all make sense and so could Jackson Jobe. The Royals are building a formidable pitching staff and plan to compete soon. Rocker is a volatile prospect who can look like an ace one day and struggle the next. He’s also pitching significantly more innings this season so the fastball velocity variance may simply be a by product of adjusting to a challenging schedule.
8. Colorado Rockies
Brady House, 3B, Winder-Barrow (HS)
Colorado has been willing to take a high school talent if the option presented itself, but is generally focused on going the college route in the first rough. They have been most often associated with college players so far, but Brady House being available would be very enticing to Colorado. The draft really starts to open up here with teams having very different valuations on players. This mock has Brady House who sports some hitting metrics related to bat path and max exit velocity that are very impressive.
9. Los Angeles Angels
Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork (HS)
The Angels are a wild card and could go in any number of ways. Will Taylor has been associated with the club. And the Angels have been in see Jackson Jobe (RHP; Heritage Hall, HS), Bubba Chandler (RHP/SS; North Oconee HS), and Frank Mozzicato (LHP; East Catholic HS). The point is that the Angels are very willing to take a prep talent here. I forecast the multisport South Carolina prep outfielder, Will Taylor, to be the pick. Taylor combines an athletic profile with excellent hitting data from the showcase circuits. The thought is that Taylor will require a higher price to buy him out his Clemson commitment to play baseball and line up as the slot receiver on the football team, however the prevailing thought is that the price isn’t prohibitive. While I won’t speculate on signability figures, a team drafting this high could even offer a discount from their bonus pool and still put out a $4 million dollar deal.
10. New York Mets
Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS
New York has leaned prep talent in recent years building out a solid group in the lower levels of the minors. High school righthanders carry an inherent risk in the draft so that is always a consideration. Jobe is on the rise with chatter Detroit at pick three is interested. Even teams normally wary of prep pitchers have to be at least monitoring the situation. Jobe is largely seen as a pitcher at the next level, but he had some success as his team’s shortstop as well so his added versatility does mitigate a small portion of risk seen with prep pitchers. He will show three above-average to plus pitches and there are some evaluators who have him as the top pitcher in the class long-term (high school and college).
11. Washington Nationals
Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina
Williams only threw three innings in 2020 due to a broken finger and COVID-19, however he was dominant this past season including a dominant 7 1/3 innings, 7 hits, 2 unearned runs, with a 13/2 K/BB line in the Super Regionals against Vanderbilt. Williams showcases an exceptional fastball with elite velocity (95-99 mph) and movement patterns. His breaking pitches (curveball and slider are both plus and above-average respectively). His fourth pitch is his changeup and that is more inconsistent, but has been coming on of late. It flashes plus as well. Simply, Gavin Williams is coming and should be flying up draft boards. Recent communication suggested teams are wary of his injury history, but this feels nebulous and hardly in line with how teams were clamoring to draft Garret Crochet in 2020 after he threw 4 1/3 innings and had an active shoulder injury. I believe a team is going to draft Gavin Williams early and a team like Washington who isn’t known as an elite pitching development organization should feel comfortable taking Williams and letting him run out there. Gunnar Hoglund, Kumar Rocker, and Jackson Jobe could be in play here as well.
12. Seattle Mariners
Matt McLain, SS/OF, UCLA
Seattle appears to be focused on college bats so any of the McLain, Cowser, Frelick trio could all be options. McLain offers sure production at the next level. There are some scouts that feel he can handle shortstop in pro ball, thought most I’ve talked with feel it’s a 2B or OF profile. Ty Madden may be an option here as well. The Mariners had success with Emerson Hancock who entered 2020 in the 1-1 discussion before slipping to 6 with similar complaints about his fastball. Hancock has since soared up prospect rankings with a few pitching development modifications.
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13. Philadelphia Phillies
Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
Frelick may not have elite upside, but he looks like a fairly sure bet to make it to the majors where could succeed as a high contact centerfielder (or second baseman). His run tool is about a 65. I do wonder if he is moved around at the next level. He has logged time at 2B and SS in the FCBL summer league in 2020. The fact that he is more of a “sure-thing” and the lack of college bats makes it likely he ends up somewhere in the top 10, but sometimes the board falls a certain way. From my previous mock, “And come on, you know you want a guy named “Sal” to end up in Philly”.
14. San Francisco Giants
Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
Cowser has average or better tools across the board and while he played for the relatively small, Sam Houston State, he played for USA baseball and is well-known to scouts. San Francisco has been connected to all of the college hitters (Frelick, Cowser, and McLain) along with Jordan Wicks this draft cycle. I still lean to them taking one of the college bats if they have that option.
15. Milwaukee Brewers
Matthew Mikulski, LHP, Fordham
Mason McRae first linked Matthew Mikulski as an arm to watch in the top 20 picks for a significant cost savings. The fit is perfect here between Milwaukee and Mikulski who sports excellent pitching metrics. Milwaukee could also snag Jordan Wicks, who many regard as the top lefthander in the draft class.
With three picks in the first two rounds, Milwaukee has a lot of money to work with to handle tough signs. The team also had no problem taking a hitter with a challenging swing. Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee’s first round pick in 2020) was one of the most talented players in last year’s draft, but he slid due to a choppy swing. It’s rumored that Benny Montgomery (OF; Red Land, HS) could be a tough sign and he has a significant hitch in his swing that comes and goes. In this mock, the Brewers are in a position to save a significant amount of pool money with this pick (and take a affordable player in the comp round) before splurging on Montgomery with a later pick. Benny Montgomery has the potential to compete with Mitchell to determine who should man centerfield in a few years with top the charts athleticism.
16. Miami Marlins
Bubba Chandler, RHP/SS, North Oconee HS
Chandler is a high-upside impact talent who could succeed as either a pitcher or as a shortstop, where his rocket arm gives him a weapon. Scouts are mixed as to whether he should commit to pitching or hitting, but it appears there’s more of a push for him to pitch. As a pitcher, he throws a plus fastball and curveball, but will show off both a slider and changeup. Miami excels in developing changeups so it’s not hard to envision Chandler settling in as a four-pitch guy with three above-average or better offerings. Miami has no issue dreaming on upside. Chandler likely needs to go fairly high to convince him to give up his football aspirations at Clemson, where he is a top recruit to play quarterback. Miami has three early picks (31 and 52) and is armed with some of the most money in the class.
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17. Cincinnati Reds
Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois
Trey Sweeney does everything you could want in a hitter with upper echelon exit velocities, as well as contact and chase rates. He keeps getting named with teams in the 20s in the draft, but could offer an immense value to a team higher at a discount. Cincinnati has three picks in the first 35 selections and a value play here early could allow the Reds to do big things in this draft.
18. St. Louis Cardinals
Spencer Schwellenbach, SS/RHP, Nebraska
The Cardinals have shown the willingness to take developmental prospects and, along with that, two-way players. Schwellenbach’s likely future lies on the mound where he got a chance in 2021 to showcase three pitches. His fastball and slider both are plus. Despite not throwing many innings, scouts feel he has the ability to start at the next level.
19. Toronto Blue Jays
Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State
Bednar may not be here this late in the draft, but some team is going to get a stud. He’ll barely be 21 years old and is already showcasing upper-level stuff. His fastball generates whiffs, especially up in the zone and his slider is plus as well. Young, successful SEC aces don’t last long in drafts, especially when they have impressive pitch metrics. Toronto reaps the benefits here in this mock. The Blue Jays are also associated with a host of higher-upside players like Anthony Solometo, Jay Allen, Jud Fabian, and Joe Mack.
20. New York Yankees
Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
The Yankees have shown a willingness to take injured pitchers early in the draft. Hoglund was a top 10 (possibly top 5) overall selection in the draft prior to his injury. Andrew Painter has been associated with the Yankees for awhile now as well. He entered the draft cycle as the top overall prep pitcher, but he showed four average or better pitches (but no plus offerings) this season. If the Yankees go with someone like Joe Mack or Trey Sweeney, it’s possible that the Yankees try to find some slot savings here to try to sign Jaden Hill in the second round.
21. Chicago Cubs
Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge (HS)
I featured Colson Montgomery in my most recent Draft hitting targets for the Cubs. Montgomery plays a solid SS, but may move over to third in professional ball. He has the arm to thrive at the hot corner if needed. The hitting data is the most exciting aspect of Montgomery as a first round prospect. In the showcase circuit last year, Montgomery put up a similar max exit velo to Kahlil Watson, Harry Ford, Will Taylor, and Peyton Stovall, while posting a solid 80% contact rate and only a 17% chase rate. All three of those figures stand up with some of the top players in the class. Montgomery projects for above-average hit and power down the line.
Colson Montgomery (2021 IN) with a double to the pull side gap in his first at bat. Long frame, good leverage and extension, big power potential #WWBAWorlds#Indiana commit pic.twitter.com/Yl2r4RGKHK
Other players linked to the Cubs include Trey Sweeney (mentioned above), Jud Fabian (OF, Florida), Will Taylor (above), Mike McGreevy (RHP, UCSB), Anthony Solometo (LHP, Bishop Eustace HS). But in an effort to add to the conversation, James Triantos (SS, Madison HS) deserves some more publicity. Triantos sported a 94% contact rate in the showcase circuit last year (tops in the class) with a similar max EV as Will Taylor, Harry Ford, and the aforementioned Colson Montgomery. He did see his chase rate in a higher tier, but in the same range as Jordan Lawler (23%). Traintos has quite an arm and has good run times. He hails from Cubs area scout (and 2020 Stan Zielinski Scout of the Year) Billy Swoope’s territory. If there’s one player who could be this year’s Nick Yorke (who was a surprise mid-first round selection), I’ll say it is James Triantos.
22. Chicago White Sox
Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks (SS)
The White Sox have been all over high school players recently. Most notably the Sox have been heavy on Colson Montgomery and fellow prep SS, Max Muncy (no relation to the big-leaguer). With Montgomery off the board to the Northsiders, Max Muncy is the selection. Wes Kath (3B, Desert Mountain HS) is another name mentioned in association with the White Sox.
23. Cleveland Baseball Team
Carson Williams, SS, Torrey Pines (HS)
Cleveland heavily factors in age to their draft model and Carson Williams is an impressive high school infielder with age on his side. Carson Williams is one of the many prep shortstops who should go high in this class. He will turn 18 only a few weeks before the draft, so his age will appeal to some teams who heavily factor it into their model. Williams is hit over power and a sure bet to stay at SS long term. He has a strong arm. Williams also dabbled on the mound, but it sounds like he’s more likely to stay on the infield. Williams showed good contact rates in the showcase circuit.
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24. Atlanta Braves
Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
Madden is frequently linked to teams higher in the first round. On the surface that makes sense as he’s been very successful this season, including his recent College World Series performance. But there has been significant questions related to Madden’s fastball shape. His fastball has a natural cut dynamic without intending to do so. Effectively it’s a pitch in the middle and while additional movement can be a positive on the surface, there are teams that actually view that as a ding on an otherwise stellar resume. It’s a fairly similar profile to Cade Cavalli, who went 23rd overall, but was frequently linked to teams in the early teens. Cavalli ultimately went to a team who perceives things through more of a traditional scouting lens in Washington (which is one of the reasons they’ve been linked to Madden at 11). But that is all to put into context that Madden is a very good pitcher. He could provide great value to Atlanta here.
25. Oakland Athletics
Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
Jordan Wicks has been firmly listed as the top college lefty in the class during the draft cycle largely on the success of an above-average fastball (plays up due to deception) and a supremely impressive changeup. While his pitching metrics won’t blow you away, they’re solid and he’s polished. A team in contention, like Oakland, should expect him up relatively soon.
26. Minnesota Twins
Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
Jud Fabian has otherworldly talent, but the Ks just kept piling up. Even after he made a mid-season adjustment, the Ks crept back. He settled in around 29% K% for the year, which is way too high for most teams. But Fabian is still a premier athlete and defender in centerfield with above-average to plus power. Minnesota has shown a willingness to deal with strikeouts at the expense of power before.
27. San Diego Padres
Lonnie White, OF, Malvern Prep (HS)
Look for the Padres to take a player with impressive metrics (pitching or hitting). Lonnie White gets the nod here after he demonstrated some of the best batted ball data in the showcases last year. He reigned supreme in max exit velocity with a solid contact rate. His chase rate was 23% (a tad high, but not outrageous), which was similar to Jordan Lawler. Peyton Stovall out of Haughton HS in Louisiana could be another name to watch here.
28. Tampa Bay Rays
Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace (HS)
I’ve had Tampa Bay linked to Solometo since the first mock draft so there’s no sense in deviating now. Solometo is a left hander with a funky arm action from the Northeast. The Rays haven’t shied away from any component of that profile before. Tampa Bay places added value on incorporating different looks from their pitching staff. Solometo is primarily a two-pitch guy and could stand to improve his changeup, but that’s hardly an unusual statement about cold-weather arms. The Rays brass has been spotted at several games for fellow northeast prep, Joshua Baez, and he could be in play for TB.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers
Gage Jump, LHP, JSerra Catholic (HS)
The Dodgers have shown a willingness to take undervalued talents. Gage Jump from the pitching side is a solid example of that. Shy of six-foot, the high school lefthander demonstrates success with an elevated fastball that plays up even higher due to a lower vertical approach angle. The long-term question is “will Gage Jump be a starter?” Scouts are mixed, but if he’s taken this high, a team will certainly try. He’s an athletic pitcher who would absolutely be in a great organization to succeed (Rays and Padres would be two other phenomenal fits for Jump). Conner Norby, Alex Mooney, Tommy Mace, Ryan Cusick, and Ky Bush could all be names to watch here.
30. Cincinnati Reds
Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic (HS)
Kiley McDaniel ($) of ESPN first linked Jay Allen (and later James Wood) to the Reds. Here in this mock, Cincinnati is able to get both in part due to the selection of Sweeney at pick 17. Allen has average or better tools across the board with some scouts feeling like those skills will only improve as he focuses exclusively on baseball.
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31. Miami Marlins
Tommy Mace, RHP, Florida
Mace could have been drafted last year, but had a price in mind and headed back to Florida. He’s looked good this year, but now probably represents a value play to teams in the late first/early second round. After selecting Bubba Chandler in the first round, Miami is in a position to take a quick-to-the-majors arm at a bit of a discount.
32. Detroit Tigers
Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian (HS)
Detroit should still have considerable funds to take another big swing after picking third overall. They’ve been tied to prep SS Alex Mooney, who could be available here as well. Even if they take a prep SS with their first pick, I wouldn’t rule out Mooney later, but in this mock, Detroit doesn’t have to make that choice. Here the Tigers pick up Painter to add to their future pitching options.
33. Milwaukee Brewers
Aaron Zavala, OF, Oregon
Brewer scouts were all over Aaron Zavala at the NCAA regionals in Eugene and he showed off a solid swing at the dish. His name has been creeping up boards in recent weeks. He dealt with a shoulder injury earlier in the season, but looked impressive in his return. His swing is geared towards teams that place a heavy emphasis on hitting models.
34. Tampa Bay Rays
Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
Cusick needs some refinement, but if any profile is reminiscent of Garret Crochet from 2020, it’s Cusick. He could potentially help a team win this season out of the pen before transitioning back to starting next season. There aren’t really any better teams for someone with Cusick’s stuff to end up with than Tampa Bay where their impressive pitching development infrastructure combined with their willingness to be flexible with innings would give Cusick a leg up.
35. Cincinnati Reds
James Wood, OF, IMG Academy (HS)
James Wood is a bit of an enigma. On somedays he flashes all-star potential and on others he looks lost. He is committed to Mississippi State and could be a tough sign. In this mock, Cincinnati’s selection of Mikulski paves the way for the Reds to sign overslot selections.
36. Minnesota Twins
Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East (HS)
Mack could easily be an earlier selection in the first round, but if he makes it down to here, Minnesota should consider themselves lucky. The Twins are often associated with college bats, but having taken one earlier take the prep catcher with the best likelihood of staying at the position in the class.
The Chicago Cubs of the Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer era was built largely on the backs of elite hitters taken in the first round. Albert Almora, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ, and Nico Hoerner experienced varying levels of success from role players to MVP, but each first-round hitter drafted from 2012-2018 made the major leagues. While every fan dreams of filling out the an All-star team with the Cubs starting lineup, it’s important to remember that even just receiving major league contributions from each of those picks is a remarkable success. That doesn’t even take into account of the ultimate goal (winning the World Series), which was finally accomplished in 2016.
But this is no time to rest on laurels and the organization dramatically adjusted organizational philosophies starting in 2018. This involved targeting players with a higher upside/risk. These players with a higher variance (between their low and higher projections) have been immensely valuable to the organization. Look for the Cubs to target players that fit that category during the upcoming MLB draft.
Disclaimer: Every major league organization uses some form of draft model and metrics to compare and rank both hitters and pitchers. This isn’t meant to reverse-engineer the Cubs draft model, but rather to highlight a few components of that model that may pertain to players selected. Teams also have access to far more biodynamic and proprietary data.
Hitting Factors to Consider
Athleticism
Every team wants athletes, but the players the Cubs have targeted in the last few years have trended to showcase more athleticism at the expense of polish, especially outside of the first round. Specific hitters like Brennen Davis, Cole Roederer, Ethan Hearn, and Jordan Nwogu are some notable examples. The Cubs have also targeted multi sport athletes, which is a good marker for well-rounded athleticism.
Positional Considerations
While the Cubs have targeted shortstops in the past few years, You Can’t Have Too Many Shortstops. It’s not impossible to see the Cubs target one of the immensely talented high school shortstops in what is viewed as possibly the best draft class of high school shortstops ever. However, there are also a bevy of high school outfielders and catchers very worthy of being drafted in the top three rounds. Unfortunately this is largely seen as a disappointing college hitter class. That doesn’t mean the Cubs won’t take a college hitter early, just that it will be more of a scouting challenge. College outfielders get most of the publicity in the first round, however there are a number of infielders who should find themselves drafted in rounds 1-3.
Age Considerations
All organizations include age to some extent into how they evaluate players, especially in extremes. A player who is 19 years old in high school may offer less growth than a 17 year old. Certain organizations factor age very little into their draft models (Arizona) and others are notorious for heavily factoring it in (Cleveland). The Cubs are largely in the middle of the pack. Ultimately, I wouldn’t heavily weigh age when it comes to identifying players the Cubs may target.
Contact Skills
The Cubs have prioritized players with strong bat-to-ball skills in upper rounds of the last several drafts. Players like Ed Howard, Nico Hoerner, and Chase Strumpf were some notable examples of players who showed excellent bat-to-ball skills. Every organization wants player who make contact, however it should be noted that the Cubs have prioritized hit tools over power.
Swing Changes
The Cubs heavily invested in their hitting infrastructure. Justin Stone and the hitting department showed remarkable success with Brennen Davis and the Cubs have not shied away from drafting players who need to have their swing reworked (Ed Howard and Jordan Nwogu). Though the Cubs are not alone on this island, not every organization is comfortable devoting significant financial resources to players who need a reworked swing.
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High School Hitters
Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork (HS)
Ivy Futures Report: Will Taylor may seem like a prospect on the rise, but he had an excellent showcase circuit last year. Taylor showed off the best contact rate (by a good amount) and chase rate (by a bit over Peyton Stovall). Taylor is set to play baseball and football at Clemson, but from all accounts Taylor appears signable if drafted early. Taylor is supremely athletic and is a plus-plus runner who should be able to stick in CF long-term.
Cubs connections: Taylor definitely fits the athleticism picture to a tee. His bat-to-ball skills are very well-regarded. Taylor is a good bet to stay up the middle in CF. Also, Taylor has specifically been linked to the Cubs by both Keith Law and Jim Callis. Bryan Smith from Bleacher Nation also outlined his thoughts on Taylor here.
— Diamond Prospects (@diamondprospect) May 6, 2021
Colson Montgomery, SS, Holland (HS)
2021 SS Colson Montgomery (IN) just looks the part. Standing 6’4”, 200 with wide shoulders and a strong lower half. Swing shows easy raw pop and produces 95+ MPH exit velos on the regular. 2/2 today with a moonshot HR and this 1B below. #WWBAWorldspic.twitter.com/Q01cHQq8a4
Ivy Futures Report: Montgomery is an exciting high school shortstop that appears to be on the rise. In showcases last summer, Montgomery showed off the rare combined traits of a high contact and low chase rates, while also hitting the ball hard. Scouts are mixed as to whether he can stick at shortstop, but he has more than enough arm if he needed to move to third base. He also shows off enough defensive instincts to allow a team to send him out at SS in pro ball.
Cubs connections: Colson Montgomery may end up moving over to third base, but the Midwest shortstop brings both an athletic profile and the ability to combine bat-to-ball skills and power. His future above-average projections in both hit and power is similar to Ed Howard’s.
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Benny Montgomery, Red Land (HS)
Ivy Futures Report: Perhaps the most toolsy prospect in the entire draft, Montgomery’s main knock has been a hitch in his swing that appeared to go away before reappearing in recent games. Montgomery possesses great defense in CF with a plus arm and plus-plus run times. He’ll also show off above-average raw power. A team that believes it can iron out Montgomery’s swing will likely take him high.
Cubs connections: The presence of Justin Stone as the Cubs Director of Hitting should provide confidence in ironing out Montgomery’s swing. Montgomery may go higher than 21 (where the Cubs select), but if he’s there on the board he very well may present the best balance of floor and high upside.
Another no-doubt bomb from Red Land HS outfielder Benny Montgomery. He's off to a roaring start this spring. It's easy to dream on the run tool, the bat speed, and the frame. Montgomery might have one of the highest pure ceilings in the 2021 draft class. #MLBDraftpic.twitter.com/EXGYXQuVke
Ivy Futures Report: Malakhi Knight uses his quiet hitting stance to cover the plate well. He is more hit (50) over power, (45) but Knight can barrel the ball. He’s comfortable in centerfield and looks like he has solid instincts. Knight’s 6’3″ 200 lb frame should add some good weight as he grows. That growth may lead to him moving to RF, but he boasts a strong arm that should allow him to thrive in a corner if needed.
Cubs connections: Knight definitely fits that athleticism and raw talent profile that the Cubs have selected recently. Knight’s hit over power profile fits with the organization’s past precedents. He may be a round 2-3 target, but a UCLA commitment likely means he won’t come cheap.
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College Hitters
Trey Sweeney, SS/3B, Eastern Illinois
Ivy Futures Report: Sweeney is a big time pop-up prospect, who sports big hitting data. Sweeney both hits the ball hard and also does not whiff often. He plays SS for Eastern Illinois University, but is a likely 3B (or even 2B) at the next level. Some organizations may shy away from Sweeney due to his program strength or just because they weren’t able to get enough evaluators in to see him to draft Sweeney high enough. Sweeney has a chance for an above-average hit and power tool.
Cubs connections: After investing in Ed Howard, the Cubs are a good bet to trust their Midwest area scouts. Sweeney’s ability to hit the ball hard while not striking out in bunches stands out in a weaker college hitting class.
Ivy Futures Report: A likely above-average CF at the next level, Fabian has consistently performed against older competition. He checks off all the boxes as an up-the-middle defender, performer using wood bats on the cap, and solid hitting mechanics. This spring, his swing and miss has kept a K% way too high to be the top talent in the draft, but he’s normalized around 29%, which is still high, but may convince a team to invest. He may be better off going back to school to be in the 2022 draft.
Cubs Connections: If the Cubs feel they can adjust Fabian’s swing, they could have a superstar, but that’s a big “If”. He’s an up the middle, athletic talent, but comes with bigger risks than most college hitters.
Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
Ivy Futures Report: Plays SS at a premier program, McLain is a likely 2B or OF at the next level. He utilizes a contact approach from the right hand side, but strikes the ball well. An offensively strong MLB organization may make changes to his swing to allow him to drive the ball. Still he’s not a slap hitter and capable of driving the ball and probably has average power right now. Hit tool will be critical to be above-average to succeed.
Cubs connections: He’s unlikely to make it to pick 21, but McLain has some fans in the Cubs organization. McLain is a safe college bat from an advanced program, a profile that the Cubs organization from prior years would have been all over.
I jumped at the opportunity to attend the NCAA regional baseball weekend games in Eugene, Oregon, which featured University of Oregon, Louisiana State University (LSU), Gonzaga, and Central Connecticut. The regional featured legitamate top three round caliber prospects from the 2021-2023 draft.
Landon Marceaux, RHP, LSU, 2021 Draft eligible
Landon Marceaux is a top 3 round caliber pitcher in this July’s MLB Draft. Marceaux stands 6’0″ and is listed at 179 lbs., but he appears to have filled out and looks closer to 190-200 lbs. He still offers some projectability. What stands out with Marceaux is his success as a starter in the SEC with the ability to tunnel three pitches effectively.
Marceaux’s fastball operated 91-93 the entire outing. He was able to locate to both sides of the plate, but when he did miss it was often to his glove side. His breaking ball is his bread and butter pitch. He struggled to get the necessary break in the first two innings, but then locked in his command. The breaking ball had curveball actions, sitting 84-86, and at it’s best was a plus offering generating feeble swings from both righties and lefties. Marceaux also threw another breaking ball with more slider action in the low 80s. Marceaux’s changeup was more of a third offering in this outing sitting in the low 80s with some depth. He used it effectively to steal strikes over the course of several innings. The changeup needs more work.
Though he has some work to do, Landon Marceaux is a battle-tested Friday night starter in a major SEC program with four pitches (one of them plus). He’ll likely hear his name called in the third to fifth rounds.
Landon Marceaux, RHP, LSU at NCAA Regionals
Aaron Zavala, RF, Oregon, 2021 Draft eligible
Aaron Zavala attracted a good amount of attention from scouts when he was up at the plate. Standing just 6’0″, the Oregon rightfielder put on a bit of a show when he drove a double deep into the damp Oregon night. Zavala had minimal chances to show off his arm, but by all accounts, it’s a solid, accurate one. Zavala has solid weight transfer and stays balanced through the hitting zone. There could be some improvements in hip rotation to minimize wasted energy (which should be cleaned up with professional), but it’s a short, compact swing. Zavala should hear his name called relatively early this July.
Aaron Zavala, RF, Oregon at NCAA Regionals
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Dylan Crews, RF, LSU, 2023 Draft eligible
If you wanted to put money on who would be the favorite for the first overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, I’d pick Dylan Crews. The LSU rightfielder shocked many when he withdrew from the 2020 draft. Seemingly not receiving the offers he was looking for, he took his talents to Baton Rouge, where he has done nothing but mash. Crews played a solid right field, but it’s at the dish, where he’ll make his money. Crews showed good contact skills, even against Gonzaga ace, Alek Jacob. He starts in a balanced upright position before using his momentum and diving towards the ball. The hitting stance is reminiscent of Nolan Arenado. He stays balanced through the zone and is a big time power threat. Throughout the 2021 season, Crews sported a 15% K% as a true freshman in the SEC. Feel free to pick your favorite pun, but you’ll be hearing about more than a few “Crews Missiles” in the next two seasons.
Dylan Crews, RF, LSU at NCAA Regionals
Tre’ Morgan, 1B, LSU, 2023 Draft eligible
It’s not often that you hear a first baseman raved about for his defense, but Tre’ Morgan absolutely qualifies. He was dynamic at firs base saving three errant throws by the LSU infielders. He moved well around the base and even displayed flexibility in digging a ball out on a throw while doing the splits. He very much deserves the Evan White comparisons on defense.
At the plate, Morgan is a polished hitter at the plate who shows off extra bases rather than a massive power threat. That shouldn’t sell Morgan short as he did hit 5 home runs this past season as a true freshman in the SEC. In this game, Morgan showed solid bat to ball skills with only an occasional whiff. The varied timing of Gonzaga starter Alek Jacob’s delivery fooled a good number of LSU hitters on the night.
Tre’ Morgan, LSU, at NCAA Regionals
More pearls on players at the NCAA regionals
Alek Jacob, RHP, Gonzaga (2021 Draft eligible): He was exceptional in Friday night’s game throwing a complete game, shutout of the star-studded LSU offense. Jacob throws from a very low 3/4 (almost sidearm) angle producing a 84-86 mph fastball. Jacob dramatically alters the timing of his delivery, frequently using pauses at the top of his motion to throw hitters off. It was very effective. To complement the fastball, Jacob breaks out the occasional slow breaking ball, which sits in the mid 60s.
Cade Doughty, 3B, LSU (2022 Draft eligible): I’ll have more on Doughty when I release my Top prospect rankings for the 2022 draft, but Doughty has a legitimate chance to be a first rounder next summer.
Trystan Vrieling, RHP, Gonzaga (2022 Draft eligible): Vrieling came on in relief in the second inning to throw 7 solid innings. Vrieling has a very over the top arm motion. His fastball sat 92-94 mph (touching 95). It had good ride up in the zone. He paired it with a 79-81 mph curveball that generated weak swings and good drop.
In the lead up to the MLB Draft in July, there will be more articles focusing on the Draft prospects. Check out the latest Draft content here
The Cubs’ 2018 draft is shaping up to be one of the most dynamic in the last two decades. Sanders had mid-90s velocity and a big curveball coming out of LSU in the 12th round. Most prospect publications thought he had high-leverage reliever upside if everything clicked, but that his control could hold him back. In fact, Sanders was most notable for being the son of former major leaguer, Scott Sanders. Cam Sanders debuted with 16 2/3 innings across the AZL and at Eugene in 2018 before a strong season in 2019 (2.94 ERA in 21 outings [20 starts] with 84 Ks in 101 innings) for then Low-A South Bend. Sanders used his time during the pandemic to his benefit. Cam Sanders garnered incredible feedback after his 2021 spring camp success. Cubs contacts were impressed with Sanders‘ improved command and ability to maintain velocity to the fifth inning (reminder this was spring camp so it was the equivalent to spring training for the major league squad).
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Mechanics and Control
Sanders starts his motion with a quick step-back before initiating his throwing motion. His windup is abbreviated and similar to his throws from the stretch albeit without the rock back initiation. He appears to gather himself well at the top of his motion. Sanders features a longer arm stroke, but one that appears to hide the ball through the arm path well. He does have a habit of falling off to the first base side (though that leads to some impressive K-struts). His mechanics showcase an athletic, fluid delivery.
Though the control has taken a significant step forward, it still can come and go. Some of this should be put within the context that this is the first professional ball Sanders has played in 18 months. His control averages out to be solid, but can flash above-average at times. His command is still a work in progress, but like his control, can also flash above-average. There are innings where Sanders can put multiple pitches where he wants them in or out of the strike zone. When he does that, hitters can do little with them.
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Pitching Arsenal
4-seam Fastball: Sanders had velocity in 2019, but it fluctuated in the 91-97 mph range. So far this season, Sanders was 96-98 mph in his first outing and 93-96 mph in his second. His third saw him hit 98 mph, but few other reports on his velocity are out there from that start. This pitch plays well up in the zone, but he’s still able to dot it on the outer half of the plate. I feel like this pitch is average right now, but needs to be better commanded. It has the potential for much more, especially when it can play of well-located curveballs.
Curveball: Sanders features a big breaking ball in his curveball. There is some impressive vertical movement where the pitch appears to start up around a hitters shoulders before dropping into the zone. This is a knee buckler at it’s best and still produces whiffs. It can be difficult to control due to it’s movement, but appears to be an above-average offering
Slider: The slider offers good movement with tight vertical break and a bit of horizontal movement off the plate to righties. This is also Sanders’ most inconsistent pitch right now. At times it will flash plus and other pitches it acts as a waste pitch. With more repetitions, the slider has the potential to be a true plus offering, playing off both his four-seam and 2-seam fastball.
2-seam fastball: The 2-seamer is where I get truly excited about Sanders’ potential. His 2-seam has excellent movement into righties and when he throws it in the top of the zone, it can absolutely eat up batters. Elevated 2-seam fastballs is a strategy employed by the Cubs at the major league level with great success. His 2-seam is a plus pitch when commanded up in the zone. Down and away it’s more above-average, but the fact that he is able to do both gives it a plus grade from me.
Changeup: I only saw a handful of changeups. But when Sanders threw them, they had good depth and solid fade away from lefties and into righties. It’d say this pitch is right now an above-average offering, but I do think it could play better down the line.
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Future Projection
Cam Sanders is on the rise. In my 2018 draft review, Sanders was majorly slept on. His report read “A guy who may surprise likely in the pen. He keeps making adjustments (that curve could be something special) as he climbs the ladder.”. Sanders is far outpacing those projections. He is showcasing 5 pitches and flashes enough command to dominate AA hitters at times. Sanders has frontline starter potential. That’s an overused term as there are very few starters in the major leagues with that level of consistent performance. His command (and as always health) will be crucial as he continues to navigate advanced AA lineups, but if it comes together consistently this summer, Cam Sanders is an arm that should be ranked comfortably within the Cubs top prospects.
So much of this draft season is still in flux and rumors are flying fast. It is sometimes hard to differentiate real intel from info put out by teams as a smokescreen. This mock is a projection of where things will stand in July so some players (Fabian, Leiter, Arroyo) would be taken with different selections if the draft was held in May.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (HS)
I’ve heard more talk surrounding the Pirates taking a prep talent here and Jordan Lawler is the best prep player available. There’s a strong argument to be made that Lawler is the best player in the entire draft. The “five-tool” term is thrown out endlessly, but Lawler may indeed have five-tools that project to be above-average. My only concern is a bit more swing-and-miss than you’d like to see, but he has high upside and should be able to stick at shortstop long-term. Pittsburgh is able to build for the long-haul and selecting Lawler to anchor your farm system would be a strong move for an organization that is trying to recapture the magic of 2013-2015.
2. Texas Rangers
Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (HS)
I still feel like the Rangers are a possible team that will surprise here so Henry Davis, Frelick, or a college arm could be an option here. However Mayer is the top talent on the board. The Rangers are building for the long-haul and an elite prep SS has a great track record. It’s an incredible high school shortstop class and specific teams may rank Lawler, Mayer, or Watson in any order. Here Texas can still take a player many view as solidly in the top three overall. Mayer has true all-star upside.
3. Detroit Tigers
Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
The Tigers have had tremendous success targeting college talent and their board could skew so that Rocker, Davis, or a college outfielder could interest the organization. However Leiter here is too good to pass up here and, if healthy, could be up in the Tigers rotation sometime in 2022. Leiter recently was scratch late from a start due to “workload management”. The timing of the announcement being so late has led to some skepticism as to the accuracy of the rationale for Leiter being skipped. If no serious concerns arise, it’s hard for Leiter to slide too far. He still has a legitimate argument to be the top college arm since Stephen Strasburg.
4. Boston Red Sox
Brady House, 3B, Winder-Barrow (HS)
Brady House was the most heralded prospect from the high school class for the past few seasons. In that time, scouts have had ample time to pick apart his game. House has had to face the best of the best both in his class and the surrounding ones. The pendulum appears to have shifted the other way as prospect evaluators can appreciate just how special House’s hitting ability are at present. There even a few teams that think House deserves the chance to get a run at SS before deciding if he needs to move to the hot corner. Boston has the ability to do something the organization hasn’t been able to do for years, take a superstar near the top of the draft. Rocker, Watson, Davis could all be on the table as well to the Red Sox.
5. Baltimore Orioles
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
It has been speculated that Mike Ellis won’t take a pitcher in the first round after debacles related to the selections of Brady Aiken and Mark Appel during his time in Houston. That seems wildly overexaggerated and a terrible strategy to completely eliminate all pitching from consideration. Rocker will be a fascinating player to watch in the lead up to the draft. He could easily be the first player from the class to make his debut due to his advanced slider. The fastball and changeup are no slouch either. There has been frequent consternation over Rocker’s velocity, but if he’s sitting 93-95 mph at the end of the season, he should be in a position to go high.
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6. Arizona Diamondbacks
Henry Davis, C, Louisville
Henry Davis has been on fire all season. He’s sporting a .389/.511/.671 triple slash with 11 home runs and good defense added on top. As one of the most sure-fire college bats at a premium position, he won’t last long in the draft. Unlike their high school counterparts, college catchers are a less risky demographic. Davis would be a coup for a host of teams in the top 10.
7. Kansas City Royals
Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (HS)
The Royals have had the most success with high school hitters and college arms. Kahlil Watson has top 5 potential and a beautiful swing. Scouts are less certain he can stick at shortstop, but that’s not a deal breaker for the Royals who took the supremely talented Bobby Witt Jr. and watched him blossom into a top prospect. If Rocker were to make it down to this selection, I’d guess he doesn’t make it past KC.
8. Colorado Rockies
Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
Jud Fabian entered 2021 in the discussion for top overall prospect. His ability to stick in centerfield, hit with wood bats, and succeed against advanced competition in the SEC form a young age were all promising characteristics. Unfortunately Fabian had massive issues with Ks entering the season. He’s come on as of late and his overall K% is down to 27.5% as of May. Fabian offers Colorado an advanced bat with above-average power that should patrol CF in Coors in short order. Is this a bit high for Fabian? Maybe, but by the end of the season we may be looking at him as a Top 10 pick.
9. Los Angeles Angels
Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (HS)
The Angels were rumored to be making a “reach pick” in the 2020 draft. Whether that was in an effort to punt the pick or whether it was to take a high upside high school pick they could save money on is left to your imagination. There are some rumors that Harry Ford could sneak into the Top 10 picks according to Jim Callis. That’s info that I haven’t heard, but the Angels could fit that picture. Ford is a ton of fun with supreme athleticism and a first-round HS catcher worth the risk.
10. New York Mets
Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS
High school righthanders carry an inherent risk in the draft. Between the significant injury concerns and the risk of complete flameout (Kohl Stewart and Tyler Kolek are a few of the notable misses), prep righties often tumble down draft boards. It sounds like Jobe is on the rise and even teams normally wary of prep pitchers have to be at least monitoring the situation. Jobe is largely seen as a pitcher at the next level, but he had some success as his team’s shortstop as well so his added versatility does mitigate a small portion of risk seen with prep pitchers.
11. Washington Nationals
Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
Washington will consistently take pitching risks (be it injury, signability, or character risks) in an effort to find high-impact talent. Some organizations are moving away from drafting pitchers who feature fastballs with sinking action, but Washington took Jackson Rutledge who had similar movement on his fastball. It’s also possible that Madden’s fastball is able to be optimized for more ride up in the zone and may still appeal to teams with strong pitching infrastructures. Gunnar Hoglund could be in play here.
12. Seattle Mariners
Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
Safe college bats with average or better tools always have value to organizations. Cowser stands out as one of the top options in that regard due to an overall weak college hitting class. He should be an option to slot into the Seattle outfield in a few years. Ty Madden may be an option here as well. The Mariners had success with Emerson Hancock who entered 2020 in the 1-1 discussion before slipping to 6 with similar complaints about his fastball. Hancock has since soared up prospect rankings with a few pitching development modifications.
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13. Philadelphia Phillies
Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
Frelick is more of a sure-thing when it comes to prospecting prognostications. He may not have elite upside, but he looks like a fairly sure bet to make it to the majors where could succeed as a high contact centerfielder. His run tool is about a 65. I do wonder if he is moved around at the next level. He has logged time at 2B and SS in the FCBL summer league in 2020. The fact that he is more of a “sure-thing” and the lack of college bats makes it likely he ends up somewhere in the top 10, but sometimes the board falls a certain way. And come on, you know you want a guy named “Sal” to end up in Philly.
14. San Francisco Giants
Matt McLain, SS/OF, UCLA
The Giants pick up a polished college hitter not too far from their own backyard. McLain has been raking in previous weeks and I don’t buy that a broken thumb will severely hamper his draft stock. Teams got a front row view to what McLain could do. Polished college bats are in short supply in this year’s draft. Most scouts don’t feel McLain is a shortstop at the next level, but his bat looks like it could play at 2B or in the outfield. A team that does believe he could stick at short could take him higher than the middle of the draft. Colorado and Seattle may be other landing spots for McLain. It is doubtful he falls much further than 12-14. I’d be shocked if he made it past the Cubs at 21.
15. Milwaukee Brewers
Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS
Milwaukee has not been afraid to draft a hitter in need of a swing change. Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee’s first round pick in 2020) was one of the most talented players in last year’s draft, but he slid due to a choppy swing. Montgomery has quieted down that hitch already in recent weeks and there are more teams who he would appeal to. Benny Montgomery has the potential to compete with Mitchell to determine for who should man centerfield in a few years with top the charts athleticism.
16. Miami Marlins
Will Taylor, CF, Dutch Fork(HS)
Taylor has surged up draft boards and is one of the many high upside high school talents in the class. Taylor entered the class as a contact-oriented bat with solid grade in centerfield. The main question mark was if he had enough pop in the bat to justify taking him early enough to prevent him playing baseball and football (slot receiver) at Clemson. He’s shown more explosiveness at the plate recently and done so in front of scouts and decision-makers in organizations. Miami has no issue dreaming on upside.
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17. Cincinnati Reds
Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami of OH
Cincinnati is deeply connected to pitch design with Kyle Boddy now working for the Reds. That doesn’t guarantee they’ll take a pitcher, but in this mock (and likely in July) there’s an abundance of intriguing pitching talent available at this stage of the draft. I believe that #17 to Cincinnati may be the high point for Alex Mooney (prep shortstop as well) who may consider him at 35.
18. St. Louis Cardinals
Bubba Chandler, RHP/SS, North Oconee HS
The Cardinals are willing to take a developmental prospect and can handle signability concerns. Saint Louis has also invested in two way prospects as recently as 2020. Chandler is a popular pick in the top 10 overall (the Angels could be in the market) so he may not be here when St. Louis picks at 18, but if he is, I would imagine the Cardinals organization would jump at the chance to bring him in. Chandler likely needs to go fairly high to convince him to give up his football aspirations at Clemson, where he is a top recruit to play quarterback.
19. Toronto Blue Jays
Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
Wicks is the top college lefthander though there’s work to be done. He still boasts a plus changeup and his fastball and breaking ball flash above-average. Toronto has done a great job with Alek Manoah and Nate Pearson’s development. In the right developmental organization, Wicks could be a quick-to-the-majors option for a host of competitive clubs.
20. New York Yankees
Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East (HS)
Mack boasts strong hitting metrics, which should fit well within the Yankees developmental system. New York has not shied away from selecting prep catchers in the first round (2018 Anthony Siegler). Mack has good power and a real shot to stick at C. If not, the bat can play on its own. It’s possible that the Yankees try to find some slot savings here to try to sign Jaden Hill in the second round.
21. Chicago Cubs
Michael McGreevy, RHP, UCSB
I featured Michael McGreevy as a potential Cubs target and we’ll continue with that in this mock. High school hitters are the most common demographic linked to the Cubs and I do think the organization is open to high upside selections, but I don’t think it’s a given that it will occur in the first round (see below). The high school hitting class is deep and there should be excellent talent available in the following rounds. If the Cubs feel that an ascending college arm in McGreevy is the top talent on the board, this could be the selection. The UCSB righthander has a 92-95 mph sinker and above-average slider and curveball. He throws a fourth pitch in his changeup that profiles as average. His data is rumored to be excellent and the Cubs have began to significantly target pitchers with certain data points. Sam Bachmann and Will Bednar could be targets here as well.
The natural question with the Cubs is whether they would, instead, focus on high-ceiling high school hitting talent. Though this mock is listed as what teams would more likely do, taking a high school hitter (Ford in a dream scenario) would be my personal selection. As I’ve asked around, I’ve heard conflicting comments as to what people inside and outside the organization feel the Cubs will do. No one will be tipping their hand and it is only May, but there was enough conversation around college talents that I went that way for this mock. Players to consider from the prep class include the aforementioned Harry Ford and Joe Mack. In the outfield, Will Taylor, Josh Baez, James Wood, Lonnie White, and Malakhi Knight all could be options. I don’t believe the Cubs will take a prep arm in the first round.
22. Chicago White Sox
Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
The Chicago White Sox had a remarkable success taking a college arm who had reliever questions in Garrett Crochet. By September, Crochet was leading baseball in the number of 100 mph pitches thrown. Cusick offers similar potential, albeit from the righthand side. The White Sox also had a huge presence at a Will Bednar start recently, although he may be more of a second-round target. Christian Franklin out of Arkansas also fits the White Sox M.O. and could be an option with this selection.
23. Cleveland Baseball Team
Edwin Arroyo, SS, Central Pointe Academy (HS)
Cleveland heavily factors in age to their draft model and Arroyo is a dynamic high school infielder with age on his side. He has excellent bat-to-ball skills and has succeeded against older competition. Arroyo is still developing. In a class full of dynamic high school shortstops, Arroyo’s age, switch-hitting, defense first, contact bat may entice Cleveland. Cleveland’s current President of Baseball Ops was the club’s General Manager during the 2011 draft when he selected a 17-year-old, switch-hitting, defense-first, high school shortstop. That move worked very well for both the organization and Francisco Lindor. Arroyo hasn’t been consistently mocked in the first round, but he’s been coming on of late and a team with an heavy age-weighting in a draft model like Cleveland could see him and fall in love. This is admittedly a bit of a projection pick.
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24. Atlanta Braves
Tommy Mace, RHP, Florida
Mace should be a quick-moving arm due to age and experience in the SEC. He’s refined a few points in his pitch design this spring and now looks to be going in the top two rounds. Though he’s not a huge money saving pick, Mace’s age likely allows a club to save a bit here to overslot later in the draft. Here the Braves are able to nab an arm they should be very familiar with who could make major league appearances in short order, while potentially saving to invest in the 2nd/3rd rounds.
25. Oakland Athletics
James Wood, OF, IMG Academy (HS)
Wood is a divisive prospect with a high variance in ceiling and floor. That doesn’t appeal to some teams who naturally gravitate to a more sure return on investment that a first-round pick requires in both financials and opportunity. Oakland has been willing to take significant risks in the first round multiple times in the past five years. It’s been a mixed bag on that front. Wood came into the year with whispers that he could be a top five overall pick. Those talks have largely quelled, but Wood still has impressive upside. At this point in the draft, there are some teams who would jump at the opportunity to take a player with true star potential.
26. Minnesota Twins
Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami
ADC, as he’s affectionately known, came into the season as a potential top 5 pick. He started off slow, but has picked it up as of late. Scouts are still split on whether he remains a long-term catcher, but a team drafting Del Castillo high likely would run him out there in pro ball. If he lasts longer in the draft, his value as a polished college hitter starts to even out his future defensive concerns. Minnesota has defaulted to selecting bats while worrying about defensive homes later.
27. San Diego Padres
Peyton Stovall, 2B, Haughton (HS)
While San Diego may start to factor projected proximity to the majors more in their draft model to supplement their core, the Padres still excel at taking the highest upside high school talent on the board. It’s what has built a good portion of the organizational foundation. Stovall has looked great this spring and his hit over power grades are respected by San Diego, who invested heavily in Robert Hassell III at 9th overall in 2020.
28. Tampa Bay Rays
Joshua Baez, OF, Dexter Southfield (HS)
Tampa Bay was linked to Baez at different points this spring. They haven’t been shy from drafting players from the Northeast and Baez has immense potential both at the plate and, if necessary, on the mound. Joshua Baez could be in play for a variety of teams in the middle of the first round. Baez has a commitment to Vanderbilt so that could always come into play, but I won’t speculate on signing bonus demands. Eastern Illinois’s Trey Sweeney (a SS who likely moves to 3B) also may be in consideration here, though it’s hard to tell how much helium he has at the moment.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers
Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
This pick is a bit of a mystery as a number of talented players could land in LA’s lap. Hoglund’s stock is also just as much of a mystery after he left his most recent start due to injury. Kiley McDaniel reported that he will need Tommy John surgery. In the past few years very few teams have taken significantly injured arms in the first round (Yankees in 2017 – Schmidt, San Diego in 2016 – Quantrill, and the Dodgers in 2015 – Buehler). With their pitching infrastructure and a number of young, talented arms in the pipeline, the Dodgers can afford to take a risk. Hoglund was ticketed for a selection in the top 10 prior to his injury.
After 595 days of sporadic reports from the Alternate Site and reaching out to individual players and Cubs contacts, fans can finally see the progress that minor league players have made. In addition to regular content such as prospect reports, podcast interviews, and draft content, I’ll be writing about a game of the week.
I am so impressed with the young talent at Myrtle Beach that I had to make it the inaugural Game of the Week.
Ed Howard: Game results: 4 AB with 1 hit (single to left field); 1 Ks; sparkling defense The Cubs are incredibly impressed with Ed Howard this spring. He came into camp in great shape while showing off his plus defense at shortstop. That defense continued to shine in his first professional game. Howard has easy lateral range and soft hands. By the fourth inning, it became clear that when the ball was hit to Howard, you felt the play would be made. It’s the minor leagues and errors will happen. They aren’t the best way to measure defense in the minor leagues. groundskeeping is inconsistent, among other developmental issues. But Howard’s defense is already very steady.
An update from Charleston:
• Ed Howard defense • Darius Hill 2-run double • Howard RBI single
— Myrtle Beach Pelicans (@Pelicanbaseball) May 5, 2021
At the plate, Ed Howard did not look overmatched. He was calmand showed strong bat speed. Though he only was able to amass one hit, (a single; see below), Howard consistently put the bat on the ball against advance pitching. John Doxakis is a nearly 23 year old pitcher selected in the second round of the 2019 draft by the Rays, a team known for developing pitching. The other pitchers that Howard faced were Brigden, Theriot, and White (25, 24, and 22 years old respectively). Make no mistake, Howard will be challenged at Myrtle Beach. He’ll continue to face advanced pitching and will have moments he struggles, however he has the skills to succeed despite adversity. He’ll even have games where the strikeouts pileup, but I could not be more excited about Ed Howard at the present.
Jordan Nwogu: Game results: 3 AB with 0 hits (double to right field); 2 Ks, 1 HBP Nwogu has an insane amount of potential as a future power/speed threat, but it’s a definite work in progress. He appeared overmatched early against Doxakis. That continued throughout the game. Once it clicks for Nwogu, he could shoot through the system, but there may be some more Ks to his game early in the season.
Yeison Santana: Game results: 4 AB with 1 hit (double on a fly ball); 3 Ks Santana is another young infielder on the MB roster. He is the only member of the prospects brought over in the Yu Darvish trade who actually logged professional games before this season. Santana looked pretty solid with good defense at 2B and a couple competitive at-bats. In two other at-bats he was largely outpaced by advanced pitching. Santana was raved about from Cubs officials for his bat-to-ball skills.
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Yohendrick Pinango: Game results: 4 AB with 1 hit (single to left field) Cubs officials rave about the bat speed and his bat-to-ball skills. Pinango put that praise on display all game as he constantly slashed the ball to the opposite field. Pinango begins the season as one of the youngest players in full-season ball (he turns 19 on May 7th), but his contact ability is impressive. Like many of the young members of this roster, Pinango faced off against advanced pitching. There will be struggles this season, but the potential is immense. Game results: 4 AB with 1 hit (single to left field)
Pablo Aliendo: Game results: 4 AB with 1 hit (double to right field); 2 Ks With Ethan Hearn on the roster, Pablo (don’t call him “Paul”) Aliendo was a relative surprise starter at catcher in game 1. Aliendo got some shoutouts for his progress in spring camp and earned his spot at Myrtle Beach. Overall, Aliendo looked solid behind the plate and had an equally solid day at the plate (as a hitter). I would still imagine Hearn gets the majority of the run at catcher for the Pelicans (with time at DH and 1B possible), but here’s hoping Aliendo takes the opportunity and runs with it.
News and Notes
It is incredible to have minor league baseball back!
The next Game of the Week will head to South Bend as we enter the House of Bain. Max Bain is, perhaps, the most fascinating man in the entire Cubs system. He gets the nod on Thursday for the South Bend Cubs alongside positional prospects, Chase Strumpf and Cole Roederer
A slimmed down Jose Albertos looked solid on the mound in yesterday’s game. He had a significant case of the yips, but never lost the stuff. He only allowed one walk and it was a competitive plate appearance. Here’s hoping Albertos can progress as a reliever. He’s still only 22.
Luis Verdugo is the third of the “Young Myrtle Beach Infield Prospect Triumvirate”. He had a fairly unremarkable day with an 0/4 with 2Ks at the plate.
Yes, Ed Howard is a special player. A recent Cubs contact noted that Howard showed off some of the best defense they had ever seen. It’s hard not to be impressed with the overall package of tools. He’s 19 years old. Remarkable.
Ivy Futures 