Wilson Cunningham after signing with the Cubs via Cunningham family
A special thanks to Wilson Cunningham for meeting with me for this interview.
Cubs draft Twitter was sent into a scramble in the 20th round of this year’s draft with those words. Another high school pitcher, but one that wasn’t on their radar. Who was this mystery pitcher? Standing 6’8″ with a very projectable frame and coming from an impressive high school, Wilson Cunningham has all the features you’d like to see from a draft pick. He also wasn’t listed on the primary draft ranking websites like Prospects Live or Baseball America. Cunningham was committed to the University of Chicago, an institution known for producing more Nobel laureates than future MLB players. The selection required a deeper dive.
Cunningham signed the most creative deal in the Chicago Cubs draft class, and after reaching out to a few contacts within the game, it’s a deal that no one could provide a similar example of seeing before. Unlike most players, Cunningham signed a contract with the Cubs, but he will be attending the University of Chicago as planned.
It was all a huge surprise, [but] a wonderful surprise…
Wilson Cunningham
Who is Wilson Cunningham?
Standing 6’8″ at 185 lbs. during his Senior year of high school, Wilson Cunningham’s frame may resemble a basketball or volleyball player rather than what one would expect on the baseball diamond, but the Cubs see untapped potential. Despite only throwing in the mid-80s with his fastball, the lanky lefthander offers no shortage of future physical projection. Cunningham is well aware he doesn’t light up the radar gun, but he is also attuned to the unique skills he brings when he steps out on the mound. “You look at the other guys in the organization or the other Draftees [interms of velocity]. I’m a little behind the curve there, but I think what I have going for me is my height [and my] left-handedness,” Cunningham said. “So, right now, as a pitcher, I’m really comfortable with my fastball. I’ve heard players on my team when we do intersquads say ‘hey, you hide the ball really well, or it’s really tough to hit off you even though you’re not throwing as hard as everyone.’ And I think, maybe, just maybe, releasing closer to the plate might help with that, just [using] my long frame. My fastball has tons of natural sink. It’s definitely not a true four-seam. It kind of runs towards the end of the bats and induces a lot of soft contact, which is really great.”
Wilson Cunningham on the mound via Cunningham family
Though he didn’t discuss the concept by name, his long frame allowing him to release the ball much closer to the plate is an intriguing attribute. That concept is known as a pitcher’s extension. The Cubs organization is known to favor pitchers with a long extension and higher “perceived velocity” (the ball appears to be traveling faster to a hitter than it is). But Cunningham also fits the Cubs’ recent development model of targeting players who can make significant gains with proper instruction. After investing heavily in the Performance Science and High-Performance departments, the Cubs have another ideal player to build physically from the ground up. After speaking with Cunningham, he confirmed that he’s made significant strength and weight gains. He now sits over 200 lbs., with plenty of projectability remaining.
What is far more difficult to teach is a player’s intelligence and mentality. Though I can’t speak to the specifics about Cunningham’s demeanor on the mound, it shouldn’t come as a shock that the University of Chicago-bound student boasts a curious mind and a keen ability to understand the intricacies of advanced mathematics. The lefthander’s major as he enters his university years? Applied mathematics with a focus on economics. I would bet concepts such as spin rate, spin axis, induced vertical break, and tunneling won’t be too difficult to pick up.
The Deal Coming Together
The Chicago Cubs’ scouting departments leave no stone unturned and have a very collaborative process in building their draft plans. There may not be a better example of incorporating both aspects into results than the selection of Wilson Cunningham. According to Cunningham, this process came together near the end of the draft cycle.
“About two and a half weeks before the draft, my dad actually got a call from the area scout (Evan Kauffman). He called me and said, ‘Hey, nice to meet you. I’ll be sending you an email. Just fill out [a draft prospect questionaire], and if there is a time, we can Zoom with your whole family later this week. And so that was a Monday, I believe, and then we set up the zoom for [that] Thursday,” Cunningham said.
Cunningham’s Zoom invite brought in high-level executives within the Cubs Scouting department, including VP of Scouting Dan Kantrovitz. But despite a very positive meeting, Cunningham didn’t leave the session feeling confident it would happen. “I honestly didn’t think I was going to get drafted. I thought that they were just getting to know me; maybe they keep tabs on me while I’m at school and kind of check up on me in a couple of years to see how I’m doing, baseball-wise. But they mentioned the plan a little bit about doing both, going to school, playing for the Cubs, [though] it was pretty vague on the logistics,” Cunningham said.
The Cunningham family already were planning to be in Chicago the week of the MLB Draft on a campus tour, and so the Cubs planned a tentative meetup at Wrigley Field on Sunday (the first day of the draft) if time would allow.
As it turned out, the scouting team was able to schedule the time. “A week later, we go to Chicago, and we’re at Wrigley. And, the day before Evan [Kauffman] texted me and said, ‘Yeah, you’re good to go. We can meet with you,'” Cunningham said.
After being escorted by Scott Munson and Ben Kullavanijaya (Coordinator and Assistant in Amateur Scouting) up to the offices to meet Evan Kauffman, the Cubs brought in the real heavy hitters within the Cubs organization. If there was any question about how interested the Chicago Cubs were in Wilson Cunningham, it was quickly answered when both Kantrovitz and Cubs Assistant General Manager/Vice President, Pitching, Craig Breslow met with the Cunningham family. Without any time to lose on the morning of the MLB draft’s first day, the Cubs laid it out to Wilson and his parents. “They talked more about the plan and they said ‘Hey we’re really considering drafting you. They just went over the whole plan again and talked more [about the] details and everything,” Cunningham continued. After reaffirming his interest in pursuing baseball professionally, the Cubs told him to keep his phone on him on Tuesday, day three of the draft.
The Waiting Game
As Wilson Cunningham and his family prepared for a life-changing day, he toured the University of Chicago campus trying to hold back nerves. According to Cunningham, “It’s Tuesday, and we’re actually on the University of Chicago campus touring the school as I had never seen it with COVID and everything. So [my family is] there, and we’re all on our phones on the draft tracker refreshing. I don’t know if I get drafted at all, or if it’s 10th, 12th, 15th, or 20th round. We just left the tour because we couldn’t handle it. We were super excited and angsty and everything. So we waited.” After what must have felt like an eternity, Cunningham finally was contacted by Evan Kauffman. “We sat down in this little café, and I got a call from Evan. I’m like, oh my gosh, oh my gosh, this is it. It was around the 15th round. And then he said, ‘Hey Wilson. We’re just making sure that you’re really seriously considering this course,'” Cunningham said.
His parents thought Wilson had been drafted there but to no avail. Time ticked by, and countless refreshes of the draft tracker later, Wilson Cunningham finally saw his name pop up as the 20th Round selection of the Chicago Cubs.
“The big day” via Cunningham family
Next Steps
The complexities of this signing meant that all the respective ducks needed to be in a row. The Cubs worked tirelessly behind the scenes and were in communication with the Cunninghams. First and foremost, the family wanted to make sure that Wilson could continue to attend school and have that school paid for by the Chicago Cubs as promised.
It is common practice for Major League organizations to offer signed players funds to pursue college education if the player retires. What is truly unique about this deal is that the Cubs pursued language that would specifically allow Cunningham to tap into those resources immediately rather than within two years after a player retires.
“College Scholarship Plan (CSP) or Continuing Education Program (CEP) funds to help you attend an institution that offers training for personal and professional development. A CSP provision would allow you to attend a university or college, provided your studies are in pursuit of an undergraduate degree.”
With such a special deal, an even more personalized training regimen was required. According to Cunningham, he is off to the University of Chicago to begin fall classes this September through the end of the academic year (in June). However, he will still dedicate time to his baseball activities. “I will be at school full-time student at school, and I’ll be training remotely with the Cubs. It does also helps to be in Chicago with the staff there. I’ll be on the lifting [and] throwing program. I’ll be checking in with people,” Cunningham said. “Then over spring break and over the summers (and maybe even some long weekends here and there), I’ll be in Arizona with the ACL Cubs as a full-time baseball player.”
The Cubs didn’t enter the 2021 Draft with the most bonus pool money or draft selections, but they worked behind the scenes to bring in an amazing group of players. To accomplish this, they had to be creative in their bonus pool allocations and explore unique avenues to bring in projectable players, like Wilson Cunningham.
Wilson Cunningham would like to thank his family, friends, and his coaches, Glenn Zielinski, Brett Kay, and Blake Hawksworth, for helping him prepare for a future in baseball and in his studies. He would also like to thank Cubs officials Evan Kauffman, Dan Kantrovitz, and Craig Breslow for making sure that the deal was a win-win [for himself and the organization]. Most importantly he’d attribute this whole situation to God.
In this case, we’re not lowering our expectations at all because of that lower pool and so I think, you end up having to compete with teams that have more than you or twice as much as you do. You have to probably look at things a little bit differently, and try to be as creative and strategic as you can.
Dan Kantrovitz
A special thanks to Dan Kantrovitz, Vice President of Scouting, Chicago Cubs for joining
I have been fascinated with the major league draft since I began following prospects (Mark Prior and Mark Teixeira were the big fish in the 2001 draft). I dreamed of a draft where the Cubs would blow the budget out of the water and bring in a load of impact talent. But since 2012, a new collective bargaining agreement was put into place, and limits on draft spending were implemented. The era of “bonus pools” was here. While it’s debatable whether those changes brought about positive effects to the game of baseball, one thing is quite clear, teams have to enter each draft with a strategy on how they plan to best spend their pool of money.
Chicago Cubs Vice President of Scouting, Dan Kantrovitz came to the organization in October 2019 after successful stints with both the St. Louis Cardinals and Oakland Athletics. His experience previously running drafts for major league organizations provided a luxury to the Cubs in their search for a new scouting director. Simply put, it’s hard to find a scouting director with years of experience successfully doing the job. Unfortunately for Kantrovitz and the organization as well, due to the COVID-19 pandemic MLB scaled back the 2020 draft to five rounds. Fans would have to wait until 2021 to see his strategy in action with a more complete 20 round draft.
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The implementation of bonus pools creates a vastly different drafting experience for organizations. Clubs in the lower tier of market size are gifted “competitive balance selections (extra picks after either the first or second round) and teams who performed worse the previous year pick higher in the draft, which nets them a higher recommended pick values assigned to each selection. Certain clubs are armed with significantly more bonus pool capital than others. In particular, the Cubs’ approximately $7M was dwarfed by teams like Cincinnati and Detroit, who could spend close to double the Cubs’ figure. Kantrovitz described the experience as the Cubs simply playing “a different game” from those organization during the draft, however he was clear that the Cubs would have to employ some creative maneuvers with regard to their bonus pool. According to Kantrovitz, “In this case, we’re not lowering our expectations at all because of that lower pool and so I think, you end up having to compete with teams that have more than you or twice as much as you do. You have to probably look at things a little bit differently, and try to be as creative and strategic, as you can.”
We aimed to finish day two, with roughly, $80[k]-$100k in surplus in our pool that would enable us to then fire off a bullet of roughly $200k for one player on day three. We estimated that we could get a player that was a top, two-three round caliber player with that bullet.
Dan Kantrovitz
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While some teams clearly favored the safety of taking college juniors and seniors who would be the most likely players to sign for the slot max of $125k afforded to players drafted in rounds 11-20, Cubs fans were surprised when seven of the 10 day three selections were high school players. It begged the question of just how much bonus pool flexibility had the Cubs built after taking numerous high-upside players earlier in the draft? According to Kantrovitz, the Cubs planned to be creative in bringing in a player who they viewed as a top two-three round talent (effectively the caliber of player they would take if they had a competitive balance pick) by being in a position to offer one player slightly more than the $125k routinely offered on day three. “We aimed to finish day two, with roughly, $80[k]-$100k in surplus in our pool that would enable us to then fire off a bullet of roughly $200k for one player on day three,” Kantrovitz said. “We estimated that we could get a player that was a top, two-three round caliber player with that bullet.” If fans are concerned that statement suggests the Cubs will only sign one of the seven prep players on day three, Kantrovitz stated that there the Scouting Department had some good “intel” that there may be quality high school players available who would consider signing for the $125k. It appears that is coming to fruition.
13th rounder Erian Rodriguez signed for $125k with the Cubs. He is set to report to AZ for a physical later this week. https://t.co/u1ONMhoAO8
Erian Rodriguez appears to be a high school player who agreed to sign for the $125k slot
The Changing Landscape of Minor League Baseball
Disclaimer:As these are amateur players that have not signed with the Chicago Cubs, we did not discuss any high school players who have not agreed to terms by the time this episode airs.
Though it was jarring to see the Cubs’ 11th and 12th round selections abruptly signal that they would be going to college, the Cubs expected multiple high school picks selected in the 11-20th rounds to bypass professional ball at this time. In fact, due to the changes in the landscape of minor league baseball such as reducing the number of minor league affiliates and the 180 player-limit, which both went into effect this season, the team wasn’t in a position to be able to bring in a full complement of 20 drafted players in the first place. “Frankly, we weren’t gonna be able to sign 20 players in the draft anyway,” Kantrovitz said. He further went to to describe the balance the Cubs’ Scouting Department weighed during day 3 between bringing in quality players and the effect that player would have on others within the organization. “I remember talking with our guys [the Scouting Department] and PD (Player Development). It was pretty clear when you look at our rosters out there, unless there was a player who we just loved (say a college position player), there wasn’t going to be an obvious spot for him to just go into Myrtle [Beach] and get played time,” Kantrovitz said. “He had to be better than who we already have. And so, again, I think my mindset going in was, one, can we get this caliber of player after the draft (when we’re talking about college players on day three)? And then two, is he better than what we already have? And do we want this player taking at bats over a 19 year old prospect that’s still coming into his own at Myrtle [Beach]?”
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Kantrovitz provided significantly more context in the full interview (available here) behind the selection of Wicks and how the Cubs pivoted plans because he was too good to pass up. He also went into great depth about their day two selections and the 2020 and 2021 non-drafted free agents. It was striking to hear how excited the organization is about their draft. Though a scouting director would be performing malpractice if they were publicly disappointed in their draft selections, it was clear that the organization is a big believer in the caliber of talent that should be brought in when the final signings are official. Cubs fans know how much one stellar draft class can impact the entire organization and while it will be difficult to judge this group for several years, the early results suggest this group will be one to watch.
Want to hear far more insights into the strategy of the Chicago Cubs during the 2021 draft? Curious about the impact of non-drafted free agents from 2020 and 2021? The full interview is available here.
Chicago Cubs first-round pick, Jordan Wicks, was introduced to the media today, July 15th. He will be joined by fellow high-upside draft prospects in signing with the organization, lefthander Drew Gray (third-round) and centerfielder Christian Franklin (fourth-round). Today marks the first time the next wave of prospects will officially enter the system.
The Cubs, under VP of Scouting Dan Kantrovitz, were opportunistic in selecting Wicks who was one of “nine or ten guys” on their draft board that they were hopeful would slide to their selection at 21st overall in the draft. Once it became clear he may be available, the team jumped at the opportunity to draft a player who Kantrovitz described as “the complete package.”
Drew Gray and Christian Franklin are two players who Cubs’ officials describe as premier athletes. In an interview between Dan Kantrovitz and , Kantrovitz described Gray as “dripping with projection” and featured multiple pitches that excite the Cubs’ scouts, including a “snapdragon breaker” (his curveball). Cubs officials feel that Franklin is a plus centerfielder, which is rare to find at that stage in the draft. Each of these players is considered a “high-variance” player (one that has a wide range of outcomes). It will be up to the Cubs’ performance science and high performance departments to help these players reach the higher end of that range. Gray was scouted by area scout, Tom Clark and Franklin was scouted by area scout, Ty Nichols.
Signing bonuses of all three players are unlikely to be announced at this time. However Wicks’ bonus is expected to near the 21st overall bonus slot figure of $3,132,300. Drew Gray confirmed his signing via his Instagram. According to Carlos Callazo, Franklin signed for $425,000 ($39,500 under slot of $464,500).
One note, unless confirmed publicly or by a team-source, I won’t be speculating or reporting a player’s specific signing bonus.Bloggers exist as sort of fan/journalistic hybrid. I greatly enjoy what I do and I’m passionate about it. I love to tell stories and inform if I can, but I also want to be mindful that even speculating that a player has signed and attaching a signing bonus could jeopardize a player’s eligibility in case the deal falls apart. I crave information like many do, but I hope you understand.
Notes from the Press Conference
UPDATE: more than the three original players officially signed their contracts.
Ivy Futures Report: Lefthander who pounds the strike zone. Top college lefty in the class with a low 90s fastball (has a fourseam and 2-seam with 2400 rpm spin) and a plus-plus changeup. There’s solid separation in velocity between the two pitches (~8-10 mph difference) and he “kills spin” by throwing the changeup at less than 1600 rpm. His feel for spin with a breaking ball lags behind with a spin rate close to 2400 rpm. Looks the part of a quick mover in the minors. A team with a good pitch development team should be able to get at least an average breaking ball from Wicks.
Drew Gray
Ivy Futures Report: A two-way player in high school, Drew Gray was announced by the Cubs as a pitcher. He’s showcased elite spin metrics on his fastball and curveball. He boasts elite extension and his fastball has a flat angle at the top of the zone, which is an in vogue metric that helps get swings an misses. As a recent convert to pitching there isn’t a lot of wear and tear on the arm.
Ivy Futures Report: Franklin will show plus raw power. He could be a plus CF at the next level. The offensive bar for a plus CF in the majors is low. If Franklin is drafted by an organization with a strong hitting infrastructure, he could be a stud. However, his biggest risk is the significant swing and miss (28.4 K% for the season). Some scouts see a fourth-OF profile, but with the potential for so much more. He’s a dynamic athlete and a fan-favorite for Arkansas.
News and Notes
Several more Draft picks are in the process of signing or have signed officially.
Cubs 4th and 6th round picks showing up on the team's official transaction wire 👀 pic.twitter.com/XYHqA6oREU
This is a big, big "get" for the Cubs. I've heard through the grapevine that Hambley has agreed to terms and will be in Chicago Sunday. I am incredibly excited to see the talented players the Cubs are adding to the system. I have a feeling we'll hear more announcements very soon. https://t.co/6RoZ9PK5iu
With the 21st pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, the Chicago Cubs selected Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State University. Wildly regarded as the top college lefty, Chicago Cubs VP of Scouting, Dan Kantrovitz said Wicks ranked “within the top 10 of their internal draft board”. Fans of fast-moving players would also be excited to know that the Cubs feel he is an advanced arm. “Next year it’ll be sort of up to him to determine where he’s placed out of spring training. But with a repertoire as advanced as his, he’ll probably have some options.” Kantrovitz said.
Ivy Futures Report: Lefthander who pounds the strike zone. Top college lefty in the class with a low 90s fastball (has a fourseam and 2-seam with 2400 rpm spin) and a plus-plus changeup. There’s solid separation in velocity between the two pitches (~8-10 mph difference) and he “kills spin” by throwing the changeup at less than 1600 rpm. His feel for spin with a breaking ball lags behind with a spin rate close to 2400 rpm. Looks the part of a quick mover in the minors. A team with a good pitch development team should be able to get at least an average breaking ball from Wicks.
Metrically, Wicks stands out for his low-spin changeup and 2400 rpm sinker (a pitch the Cubs prioritize). From a biomechanical standpoint, ProPlayAI gives an incredible breakdown.
Jordan Wicks is heading to the North Side! The @Cubs get a pitcher who showed the second most scap retraction in our draft group, along with the second most MER. All signs pointing to great shoulder mobility. pic.twitter.com/b2nQf1gxnw
Kansas State has never had a first-round pick or a pitcher selected in the top three rounds, but that’s on the verge of changing. Wicks is clearly the top left-hander available in the 2021 Draft and has a longer track record of success than most of this year’s college pitchers. He won the Big 12 Conference freshman of the year award in 2019, allowed one run in four starts during the truncated 2020 season before posting a 0.52 ERA with 52 strikeouts in 34 2/3 innings between two summer leagues, then set school records for single-season (118) and career (230) strikeouts this spring.
Wicks has the best changeup in the Draft, a low-80s weapon with tumble and depth that he sells with deceptive arm speed, earning plus-plus grades from some evaluators. He sets it up with a fastball that has added about 5 mph since high school, now sitting at 90-93 mph and hitting 95 with high spin rates that give it riding action. He has improved his low-80s slider to the point where it’s now a solid offering, and he also can morph it into a harder cutter and mix in an upper-70s curveball.
Wicks works with little effort, easily repeating his delivery and pounding the strike zone while working both sides of the plate. In addition to his stuff and command, he earns praise for his competitiveness and inventiveness on the mound. One scout likened him to Reid Detmers, the No. 10 overall choice in 2020 by the Angels, with a changeup rather than a curveball as his dominant pitch.
MLB Pipeline
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Jordan Wicks may just be the 2021 version of Bryce Jarvis. It might just be the best changeup in the class. Coming from the left side, Wicks has a 3/4 arm slot that pumps 89-92, touching 94. The changeup seems to hit a brick wall in front of the plate, tumbling heavy arm-side. He flashes a cutter-ish slider and curveball that have both shown good spin rates, though still developing consistent shape. There’s a good bit of deception in Wicks’ stuff and guys really struggle to square him up. Most believe he’s the best lefty in the class, and he’s just about as polished as they come. He may not have top of the rotation upside, but with Wicks you’re selecting the floor of a Low-3/High-4 rotation arm that should move quickly to the big leagues. He’s almost certainly going to be a first round pick in July
After some recent draft rumors suggested that popular Cubs draft targets, Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State and Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge (HS) may not be available when the Cubs pick at 21st overall, it begged the question, “Who would you take?”
Report: Sweeney is a rising prospect who sports top-of-the-line hitting data. Sweeney both hits the ball hard and also does not whiff often (87% contact rate). He is a likely 3B at the next level. Sweeney has a chance for an above-average hit and power tool.
Notes: Gavin Williams and James Triantos paced the way in this vote. Ultimately the upside of a frontline arm like Gavin Williams was too much to pass up.
Report: Williams shows off a top-of-rotation profile on the mound led by a plus fastball that sits in the mid-to-upper 90s. Williams also showcases a dynamic curveball thrown in the upper 70s to low 80s. His slider and changeup add in average third and fourth pitches that scouts feel should each be better with professional instruction. There has been chatter of concern over prior injuries, but a broken finger is hardly a long-term concern after 81+ dominant innings in 2021. His age of 22 may hold some teams back.
Notes: In a poll packed with a mix of high floors and high ceilings, the voters decided to side with the metrically amazing college bat of Aaron Zavala.
Report: Standing just 6’0″, the Oregon rightfielder put on a bit of a show in the NCAA Regionals when he drove a double deep into the damp Oregon night. Zavala has a solid, accurate arm that plays well in right field. Zavala has solid weight transfer and stays balanced through the hitting zone. There could be some improvements in hip rotation to minimize wasted energy (which should be cleaned up with professional), but it’s a short, compact swing. His batting metrics are exceptional.
The Final Selection!
Folks! The final “Who Would You Pick?” based on your votes in parts 1-3. Make sure to vote below on who would be your selection.
With the 21st selection in the 2021 MLB Draft, you selected (for the Chicago Cubs), Gavin Williams, RHP, out of East Carolina University. As you can see, it was a very close decision with all three possible options garnering significant vote totals.
Final Selection:Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina University
It’s been a blast to have the opportunity to analyze this Draft class as I’ve started Ivy Futures, and while it’s been successful, I’ve also learned a lot along the way to improve when I start next year’s rankings. Thanks for joining me on this journey.
Here it is, the Final Mock! Yes, there will be decisions that organizations made over the next few hours, but this is the mock I’m riding with as we head into draft day.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
Henry Davis, C, Louisville
The ultimate choice could be down to which player offers the best deal from among the Davis, Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawler, and Jack Leiter quartet. While everyone is going for Marcelo Mayer (and I think that’s a solid choice), I’ll project that Davis offers the best value with the safety and security of being the best college bat.
2. Texas Rangers
Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
The Rangers appear to be picking amongst Watson, Leiter, Davis, and Mayer. Timeline be damned, Leiter is the most talented player for many (though Mayer is as well). Here the Rangers get the most advanced college arm and one that could make his big league appearance in 2022.
3. Detroit Tigers
Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (HS)
The Tigers have had tremendous success targeting college talent and their board could skew so that Rocker, Davis, or a college outfielder could interest the organization. I believe the Tigers love Mayer. The young shortstop also offers a future plus hit tool along with a solid average or better defensive grade at a premium position.
4. Boston Red Sox
Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (HS)
With Leiter and Davis off the board, the Red Sox opt for Kahlil Watson who showcases impressive bat paths. His power is emerging and scouts feel he’s a great bet to hit at the next level. Brady House would make sense here too for many of the same reasons.
5. Baltimore Orioles
Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
Baltimore rocked many 2020 mocks when they took Heston Kjerstad with the 2nd overall pick in a money-saving gambit. Orioles GM, Mike Elias, spent his time in the Astros front office where Houston consistently employed that strategy (most notably in 2012 when they paired up Carlos Correa and used the savings for Lance McCullers). I expect the Orioles to do the same this season and have heard them connected with Cowser and Harry Ford. Cowser offers average or better tools across the board.
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6. Arizona Diamondbacks
Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS
I have it down to Jobe or Lawler and I personally think it could go either way based on this mock. According to Kiley McDaniel, the Diamondbacks lean Jobe in that scenario and I haven’t heard otherwise. The Diamondbacks land the top prep pitcher in the class.
7. Kansas City Royals
Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (HS)
The Royals have had the most success with high school hitters and college arms. The Royals also have shown success taking talented players that “fall” to them in the draft. Rocker, Lawler, House, Watson, all make sense and so could Jackson Jobe. They drafted and developed Bobby Witt Jr. into a budding star. Lawler has a similar profile and upside.
8. Colorado Rockies
Brady House, 3B, Winder-Barrow (HS)
Colorado has been willing to take a high school talent if the option presented itself, but is generally focused on going the college route in the first round. They have been most often associated with college players so far, but Brady House being available could change things for Colorado. This mock has Brady House who sports some hitting metrics related to bat path and max exit velocity that are very impressive.
9. Los Angeles Angels
Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork (HS)
The Angels are a wild card and could go in any number of ways. And the Angels have been in see Jackson Jobe (RHP; Heritage Hall, HS), Bubba Chandler (RHP/SS; North Oconee HS), and Frank Mozzicato (LHP; East Catholic HS). The point is that the Angels are very willing to take a prep talent here. I forecast the multisport South Carolina prep outfielder, Will Taylor, to be the pick. Taylor combines an athletic profile with excellent hitting data from the showcase circuits. The thought is that Taylor will require a higher price to buy him out his Clemson commitment to play baseball and line up as the slot receiver on the football team, however at this pick, the Angels would be in a good position to sign him.
10. New York Mets
Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge (HS)
New York has leaned prep talent in recent years building out a solid group in the lower levels of the minors. They also don’t factor age heavily into their draft model so Colson Montgomery who is already 19. Still, his above-average hit and power projections offer the upside of an above-average third baseman at the next level.
11. Washington Nationals
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
Kumar Rocker entered the year as a consensus top five prospect, but inconsistent results and waxing and waning velocity scared off some teams. The Nationals are very willing to take a risk in the hopes of landing an upside talent.
12. Seattle Mariners
Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (HS)
Seattle has been linked with college bats so far this draft cycle, but Harry Ford appears to be on the Mariners radar as well. Ford offers supreme athleticism, which mitigates the risk of taking a high school catcher early. By all accounts, Ford is a high character individual and would be a boon to any club house.
Ty Madden may be an option here as well. The Mariners had success with Emerson Hancock who entered 2020 in the 1-1 discussion before slipping to 6 with similar complaints about his fastball. Hancock has since soared up prospect rankings with a few pitching development modifications.
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13. Philadelphia Phillies
Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
Frelick may not have elite upside, but he looks like a fairly sure bet to make it to the majors where could succeed as a high contact centerfielder (or second baseman). His run tool is about a 65. I do wonder if he is moved around at the next level. He has logged time at 2B and SS in the FCBL summer league in 2020. The fact that he is more of a “sure-thing” and the lack of college bats makes it likely he ends up somewhere in the top 10, but sometimes the board falls a certain way.
14. San Francisco Giants
Matt McLain, SS/OF, UCLA
San Francisco has been connected to all of the college hitters (Frelick, Cowser, and McLain) along with Jordan Wicks this draft cycle. I still lean to them taking one of the college bats if they have that option. McLain gets overshadowed, but he really shouldn’t. While he doesn’t have standout tools, McLain is a very successful college hitter form a strong program. He combines on-base skills with some emerging power in a profile that should succeed at 2B (some scouts feel a team should run him out at SS).
15. Milwaukee Brewers
Trey Sweeney, SS, EIU
Sweeney is a big-time pop-up prospect who sports top-of-the-line hitting data. Sweeney both hits the ball hard and also does not whiff often (87% contact rate). Some organizations may shy away from Sweeney due to his program strength or just because they couldn’t get enough evaluators to see him to draft Sweeney high enough. Sweeney has a chance for above-average hit and power despite a swing that has a lot of moving parts. Milwaukee could also snag Jordan Wicks, who many regard as the top lefthander in the draft class.
Where is Benny Montgomery going? Keeping with the same plan from Mock 3.0: “With three picks in the first two rounds, Milwaukee has a lot of money to work with to handle tough signs. The team also had no problem taking a hitter with a challenging swing. Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee’s first round pick in 2020) was one of the most talented players in last year’s draft, but he slid due to a choppy swing. It’s rumored that Benny Montgomery (OF; Red Land, HS) could be a tough sign and he has a significant hitch in his swing that comes and goes. In this mock, the Brewers are in a position to save a significant amount of pool money with this pick (and take a affordable player in the comp round) before splurging on Montgomery with a later pick. Benny Montgomery has the potential to compete with Mitchell to determine who should man centerfield in a few years with top the charts athleticism.”
16. Miami Marlins
Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State
Will Bednar showcases top of the rotation stuff and Miami has shown the willingness to take premier pitchers who would still benefit from pitch development. Bednar’s fastball and slider both are plus pitches, but he could use some more refinement on his changeup, which is a pitch Miami is known for successfully developing.
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17. Cincinnati Reds
Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
Cincinnati has three picks in the first 35 selections and a value play here early could allow the Reds to do big things in this draft. While Hoglund likely doesn’t sign for much less than slot, he offers a solid floor once he returns from TJS rehab without breaking the bank. Cincinnati is in a good position to float offers to some of the upside high school talent to see if any slide to 30 and 35. I strongly considered Matt Mikulski here and may be kicking myself on draft day for changing the selection.
18. St. Louis Cardinals
Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami OH
Bachman’s fastball, slider, and bourgeoning changeup combo can be electric. However there are whispers that teams are scared off by his medicals, namely a hip issue. It’s hard to tell how much of that is negotiating leverage or real medical concerns. The Cardinals have been more closely linked with upside prep talent, but it’s hard to argue with Bachmann if a team feels comfortable with his health forecast.
19. Toronto Blue Jays
Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina
Williams only threw three innings in 2020 due to a broken finger and COVID-19, however he was dominant this past season including a dominant 7 1/3 innings, 7 hits, 2 unearned runs, with a 13/2 K/BB line in the Super Regionals against Vanderbilt. Williams showcases an exceptional fastball with elite velocity (95-99 mph) and movement patterns. His breaking pitches (curveball and slider are both plus and above-average respectively). His fourth pitch is his changeup and that is more inconsistent, but has been coming on of late. It flashes plus as well. Simply, Gavin Williams is coming and should be flying up draft boards. Recent communication suggested teams are wary of his injury history, but that is hard to track when teams were clamoring to draft Garret Crochet in 2020 after he threw 4 1/3 innings. The Blue Jays are also associated with a host of higher-upside players like Anthony Solometo, Jay Allen, Jud Fabian, and Joe Mack.
20. New York Yankees
Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama
Wilson is a solid, if unspectacular college bat offering a very high floor. Don’t let that dissuade any Yankees fans, Wilson’s lefthanded swing would fit in exceptionally well at Yankee Stadium. Greg Huss gives a great breakdown on Wilson.
Andrew Painter has been associated with the Yankees for awhile now as well. Painter trained at Cressey Sports Performance with Eric Cressey (Yankees Director of Player Health and Performance) as well. It’s possible that the Yankees try to find some slot savings here to try to sign Jaden Hill in the second or third round.
21. Chicago Cubs
Mike McGreevy, RHP, UCSB
I featured Michael McGreevy as a potential Cubs target since April. High school hitters are the most common demographic linked to the Cubs and I do think the organization is open to high upside selections, but I don’t think it’s a guarantee that it happens in the first. McGreevy profiles as a “command+” pitcher and he pounds the zone with a sinker that sits 92-95 mph. McGreevy also features a slider, curveball, and changeup as average or better pitches. McGreevy is a projectable guy at 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds who carries a high floor with optimism to hit a mid-rotation starter ceiling.
Michael McGreevy…. late bloomer to prime attraction. Shape and power, can manipulate and command. A jaunt down memory lane he reminds me of Michael Mercado (40th overall in 2017) albeit a more polished & advanced. Bieber effect in play. #MLBDraft21pic.twitter.com/7sU6DKFKCI
Other players linked to the Cubs include Trey Sweeney (mentioned above), Jud Fabian (OF, Florida), Will Taylor (above), Tyler Whitaker (OF, Bishop Gorman), Sam Bachman (above), Anthony Solometo (LHP, Bishop Eustace HS), and Jackson Linn (OF, Cambridge Ringe HS). James Triantos (SS, Madison HS) has also been linked to the team and is finally getting some national publicity. Triantos sported a 94% contact rate in the showcase circuit last year (tops in the class) with a similar max EV as Will Taylor, Harry Ford, and the aforementioned Colson Montgomery. He hails from Cubs area scout (and 2020 Stan Zielinski Scout of the Year) Billy Swoope’s territory. From Mock Draft 3.0, “If there’s one player who could be this year’s Nick Yorke (who was a surprise mid-first round selection), I’ll say it is James Triantos“.
22. Chicago White Sox
Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks (HS)
The White Sox have been all over high school players recently. Most notably the Sox have been heavy on Colson Montgomery and fellow prep SS, Max Muncy (no relation to the big-leaguer). With Montgomery off the board well before this pick, Max Muncy is the selection. Wes Kath (3B, Desert Mountain HS) is another name mentioned in association with the White Sox.
23. Cleveland Baseball Team
Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional (HS)
I do buy the Cleveland-Petty rumors that have been circulating for several weeks now. Once, Cleveland prioritized the “command+” profile pitchers like Plesac, Civale, and Bieber, but in recent years Cleveland focused on hard throwing prep righthanders. Petty may just be the riskiest player in the draft, but his stuff is lethal. Scouts question whether he is a starter long-term. Other options appear to be high school shortstops, Carson Williams and Edwin Arroyo (although possibly for a later pick).
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24. Atlanta Braves
Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
Madden is frequently linked to teams higher in the first round. On the surface that makes sense as he’s been very successful this season, including his recent College World Series performance. But there has been significant questions related to Madden’s fastball shape. His fastball has a movement pattern that some teams view as a ding on his resume. It’s a fairly similar profile to Cade Cavalli, who went 23rd overall, but was frequently linked to teams in the early teens. Cavalli ultimately went to a team who perceives things through more of a traditional scouting lens in Washington (which is one of the reasons they’ve been linked to Madden at 11). But that is all to put into context that Madden is a very good pitcher. He could provide great value to Atlanta here.
25. Oakland Athletics
Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
Jordan Wicks has been firmly listed as the top college lefty in the class during the draft cycle largely on the success of an above-average fastball (plays up due to deception) and a supremely impressive changeup. While his pitching metrics won’t blow you away, they’re solid and he’s polished. A team in contention, like Oakland, should expect him up relatively soon. The A’s could look at McGreevy as a similar profile. Additionally, Oakland has been tied to a number of prep bats like Whitaker and Kath.
26. Minnesota Twins
Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
Jud Fabian has otherworldly talent, but the Ks just kept piling up this season. Even after he made a mid-season adjustment, the Ks crept back. He settled in around 29% K% for the year, which is way too high for most teams. But Fabian is still a premier athlete and defender in centerfield with above-average to plus power. Minnesota has shown a willingness to deal with strikeouts at the expense of power before.
27. San Diego Padres
Lonnie White Jr., OF, Malvern Prep (HS)
Look for the Padres to take a player with impressive metrics (pitching or hitting). Lonnie White gets the nod here after he demonstrated some of the best batted ball data in the showcases last year. He reigned supreme in max exit velocity with a solid contact rate. His chase rate was 23% (a tad high, but not outrageous), which was similar to Jordan Lawler. Peyton Stovall out of Haughton HS in Louisiana could be another name to watch here.
28. Tampa Bay Rays
Conner Norby, 2B, East Carolina
Middle infielders with plus hit tools are right up Tampa Bay’s alley and Norby fits that to a tee. The Rays’ first two picks are in close proximity to one another so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them flip profiles at 28/34. If Trey Sweeney made it down to 28, I believe he’d be the pick.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers
Wes Kath, 3B, Desert Mountain (HS)
For years the Dodgers snagged talents that fell to them in the draft and let their player development infrastructure build them up into elite prospects and MLB contributors. The Dodgers love to take “hit over power” infielders and work their PD magic. Kath is an amazing example of this (along with Peyton Stovall) and could be a dynamo in the LA system. Gage Jump, Conner Norby, Alex Mooney, Tommy Mace, Ryan Cusick, and Ky Bush could all be names to watch here.
30. Cincinnati Reds
Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic (HS)
Jay Allen could go way higher than this and is in play starting in the middle of the first round, but Cincinnati is in a great position to move money around to offer him significantly more than he could get with a higher pick. The Reds have been rumored to be all over the high school outfielder group for weeks now.
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31. Miami Marlins
Spencer Schwellenbach, SS/RHP, Nebraska
Schwellenbach is one of the dynamic two-way players in this class. Unlike the majority of the big names (Montgomery, Jobe, Chandler), Schwellenbach is already in college where he served as SS and closer for Nebraska. Miami has been linked to higher upside players in this class and their pitching infrastructure puts the Marlins in a great position to build out Schwellenbach’s repertoire.
32. Detroit Tigers
Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian (HS)
Detroit should still have considerable funds to take another big swing after picking third overall. They’ve been tied to prep SS Alex Mooney, who could be available here as well. Here the Tigers pick up Painter to add to their future pitching options.
33. Milwaukee Brewers
Aaron Zavala, OF, Oregon
Brewer scouts were all over Aaron Zavala at the NCAA regionals in Eugene and he showed off a solid swing at the dish. His name has been creeping up boards in recent weeks. He dealt with a shoulder injury earlier in the season, but looked impressive in his return. His swing is geared towards teams that place a heavy emphasis on hitting models.
34. Tampa Bay Rays
Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace (HS)
I’ve had Tampa Bay linked to Solometo since the first mock draft so there’s no sense in deviating now. Solometo is a LHP with a funky arm action from the Northeast. The Rays haven’t shied away from any component of that profile before. Tampa Bay places added value on incorporating different looks from their pitching staff. Solometo is primarily a two-pitch guy and could stand to improve his changeup, but that’s hardly an unusual statement about cold-weather arms. The Rays brass has been spotted at several games for fellow northeast prep, Joshua Baez, and he could be in play for TB.
35. Cincinnati Reds
Malakhi Knight, OF, Marysville-Getchell (HS)
The Reds have been all over prep high school outfielders and there are rumors that James Wood may not be reasonably signable. Cincinnati had a surprisingly big scouting presence in to see Knight recently so this is a shot in the dark. He could certainly be a second or third round target.
36. Minnesota Twins
Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East (HS)
Mack could easily be an earlier selection in the first round, but if he makes it down to here, Minnesota should consider themselves lucky. The Twins are often associated with college bats, but having taken one earlier they can take the prep catcher with the best likelihood of staying at the position in the class.
“What is the optimal strategy in this year’s draft for the Cubs?”
There are countless different “ideal options” in the current landscape of the MLB Draft. Since the first year of the 10-round bonus pool draft format in 2012, we’ve seen teams be creative in how they stretch their imposed financial constraints to get the most talent out of the draft. For a breakdown in how the 2021 draft operates, check out the Chicago Cubs Draft Primer, but here’s a quick summary.
Since these bonus allotments aren’t fixed (only a guideline), the draft is really separated into two drafts. The first 10 rounds becomes its own beast with teams strategically drafting certain players to “save money” for higher priced picks. Often, this involves drafting players in the latter half of the first 10 rounds who are seniors in college and lack leverage in negotiations.”
Ivy Futures Draft Primer
A special thanks to David Elliott (@Davidrelliott) for the suggestion for the article
Disclaimer: I reference the signability of players casually, but these conjectures are based entirely on speculation and reports by draft analysts. No financial figure should be interpreted as a specific figure or information gathered from a player or advisor.
Round 1, Pick 21: James Triantos, SS, Madison HS
Slot figure $3,132,300; approximate signing $2.7 million Savings $432,300 Report: I previously wrote that if any player in this draft provided a profile similar to last year’s surprise first-round pick, Nick Yorke, that it was Triantos. Additionally, I believe James Triantos ranks high on the Cubs board. This is far from the consensus, but in this scenario, Triantos offers an a slot savings deal while bringing in a player that had some of the strongest batted-ball data on last year’s showcase circuit. Triantos is from Cubs area scout Billy Swoop’s territory and he’s rising on draft boards. Ultimately, more scouts view him as a SS/3B long-term. He may be the best high school hitter to come out of Virginia in the past five years, according to Prospects Live’s Draft Director, Joe Doyle.
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Round 2, Pick 56: Jackson Linn, OF, Cambridge Rindge and Latin
Slot figure $1,276,400; approximate signing $1.8 million Savings -$523,600 Report: With the money saved from the pick at 21, the Chicago Cubs take a chance at another rising high school bat, Jackson Linn. The outfielder produced big time exit velocities at the MLB Draft Combine. He is a power bat that also shows off a plus-plus arm (hit 98 mph off the mound). He has a smooth easy stroke with a consistent hitting pattern. The Cambridge Rindge and Latin player has teams interested in the second and third rounds, with Baltimore at 41 offering a high water mark for him. This mock sends Linn to the Cubs for the 41st pick’s value.
Round 3, Pick 93: Grant Holman, RHP, California
Slot Figure $627,900; approximate signing $500k Savings $127,900 Report: California’s Grant Holman is an upside prospect in this year’s draft. He is a recent convert to pitching and utilizing a long extension (over 7′), which boosts the perceived velocity (the ball looks faster to the hitter because the ball is released closer to the plate) on the pitch. His secondaries don’t play as well as his 92-95 fastball, but his split-change and slider show flashes of being better than average. The fastball incorporates heavy sink on the pitch, which is a fastball characteristic the Cubs have historically liked. This is another selection where the Cubs invest in a large, athletic player who boasts characteristics they like and features an impressive ceiling.
Round 4, Pick 123: Denzel Clarke, OF, Cal State Northridge
Report: Clarke is a name on the rise after his stellar performance at the MLB Draft Combine. He is a big power/speed threat at the next level. And he uses that speed to be a strong centerfielder (Big West’s Co-Defensive Player of the Year in 2021). Clarke’s power is still raw, but it appears after his performance in the MLB Draft Combine, that he’s starting to realize that power. Clarke is a mammoth of a man, standing 6’5″ and 220 pounds. He’s gaining a lot of buzz and should go on day two of this year’s draft.
Round 5, Pick 153: Rohan Handa, LHP, Yale
Slot Figure $343,400; approximate signing $343,400 Savings $0 Report: The Hartford Courant put out an incredible article on Handa who is a big-time pop-up arm. The Yale pitcher remade himself this past season and is intriguing teams with upper 90s velocity and plus slider. No one knows where to place him in the draft, but with the interest in Handa, a team is likely going to need to take him relatively early even if it is just a bullpen profile. The Cubs invested in power lefty arms in last year’s draft (Carraway and Luke Little) and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them do it again this season.
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Round 6, Pick 184: Garrett Horn, LHP, Glenn HS
Slot Figure $263,700; approximate signing $563,700 Savings -$300,000 Report: In the past several year’s the Cubs have leaned heavily on prep pitching in North Carolina. Horn may not be a familiar name but he’s a 6’2″, projectable lefthander who throws five pitches with his four seam (90-95 mph), curveball (77-81 mph), circle changeup (low to mid 80s), and cutter (87-91 mph) his primary pitches. He will mix in a two-seam fastball. Horn recently had a successful showcase at the MLB Draft Combine and I believe he’ll be on teams’ radars, including the Cubs.
Round 7, Pick 214: Wyatt Hendrie, C, San Diego State
Slot Figure $206,500; approximate signing $56,500 Savings $150,000 Report: Hendrie was the lone pick in the first ten-rounds of the draft to not sign with the Cubs during Theo Epstein’s tenure. Some believe that Hendrie’s failed signing was the sole reason for Theo Epstein to leave the club over a year later. Those aren’t people you should associate with without witnesses. Hendrie looks like a future back-up catcher with more upside. He’s a rare hitter who has almost as many walks as strikeouts and his defense looks above-average behind the plate. He may never hit for much power, but Hendrie should have success at the next level.
Round 8, Pick 244: Michael Kirian, LHP, Louisville
Slot Figure $168,500; approximate signing $168,500 Savings $0 Report: It was almost a rite of passage for a Louisville pitcher to be selected by the Chicago Cubs in the draft. Here the Cubs select a giant lefty (6’6″, 230 pounds) who still needs considerable mechanical refinement and pitch development. The Cubs have invested heavily in their high performance and performance science infrastructure and have the foundation to develop Kirian either as a starter or in the pen.
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Round 9, Pick 274: Brett Harris, 3B, Gonzaga
Slot Figure $152,300; approximate signing $52,300 Savings $100,000 Report: Brett Harris is a classic “senior sign” player from a solid program. He performed well this past season and, per scouts, showed good makeup with his teammates. At the NCAA Regionals, multiple scouts from the Oakland A’s were impressed with Harris. The defense wasn’t spectacular in that outing, but he’s a steady bat.
Slot Figure $143,900; approximate signing $43,900 Savings $100,000 Report: The Cubs were heavily linked to East Carolina’s Alec Burleson (1B) in last year’s draft before the Cardinals nabbed him in the third round. They then landed Matt Mervis in the post-draft free agency period. After year’s of avoiding the profile, I believe the Cubs see value in college first basemen. Griffin Doersching’s 20 home runs and his improving performance warrant a serious look.
Bonus Pool
Spending: $6,728,300 Savings: $51,100 Savings plus 5% overage: $390,070
Savings can be used to offer above the $125,000 threshold for players in rounds 11-20. Effectively the Cubs could bring in several $250,000 players in the later rounds since only the funds above $125,000 are counted against the pool. The Cubs did this in 2018 to great success.
Parting thoughts
Ten-round mock drafts are not built to be accurate exercises, but they are fun. It will be fascinating to see who the Cubs target early in this draft. This mock incorporates a few player demographics and qualities that I hope the Cubs target: high school talent, upside college players, premier athletes, and an emphasis on high performance/performance science.
“With the 56th selection in the 2021 MLB (Prospects Live) First-Year Player Draft, the Chicago Cubs select…”
Greg Zumach
Last summer, as the major sports had ground to a halt due to the COVID-19 pandemic and baseball players and owners were locked in a negotiation standstill, the only baseball event which continued to be held on schedule was the MLB Draft. Fortunately, if any event in baseball could lift my spirits, it would be the Draft. I’ve gone on record that my favorite day of the year is the first day of the MLB Draft. While my wife doesn’t like to hear such talk around the holidays, I stand behind it.
Since 2001 (the Mark Prior draft), I’ve followed the Draft and have done so passionately for over a decade. So when sports became more fantasy than reality last summer, I experienced a brief moment of normality, even if it was one-eighth the length of a standard Draft.
Prospects Live began in 2018, and I started to follow them in early 2020. As a free resource, I found their prospect and draft analysis to be quite robust and well-written. Now it’s become a go-to publication with content that matches up with any in the industry. What has now become an annual event is their Prospects Live Mock Draft, where writers, analysts, and other Draft gurus join in drafting for their respective teams in a streamed event. As of this writing, Prospects Live’s 2020 Mock Draft has over 4,100 views on YouTube. I’m reasonably sure I account for at least ten of those.
It was a thrill to be able to participate in this year’s event. And I want to take a moment to thank Bryan Smith of Bleacher Nation, who served as General Manager (GM) picking for the Chicago Cubs. He was very generous in including me in the process as “Scouting Director”. You can watch the entire Mock Draft here. Here’s a behind-the-scenes look at the Cubs selections.
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Draft Prep
In the week lead-up to the Mock, Bryan and I compiled our boards before meeting. My draft board leading into this week included 85 profiles, with 150 players ranked in total. Bryan had viewed video/ranked over 75 players. Since the Cubs were drafting at the 21st and 56th selections, we were in great shape to cover both picks. The day before the Mock, we met to hammer out a board and talk about players where our opinions diverged. We planned to collaborate on both picks with Bryan hopping on to the stream for pick 21 and me for pick 56.
Draft Day
Diverging Opinions
One player that was sure to garner mixed emotions was Florida centerfielder, Jud Fabian. To be clear, both Bryan and I rank Fabian within our top 30 prospects but acknowledge his strikeout concerns (29% K%). The upside of Fabian, though, is undeniable, and since we were picking at 21 for the Cubs, he was a player we needed to consider. So while both Bryan and I were not completely sold, I gave him a pitch in case, as GM, he wanted to make that selection:
“You could speak to: Justin Stone, [Fabian’s] other qualities (abv-avg defense in CF, plus power), and his mid-season swing adjustment (from 4/6-5/15, he had a 16% K%). So if you believe you can get him back to that, you have an upper-echelon player. The Cubs have made investments in the player development infrastructure; it’s time to make a pick with high performance and performance science at the forefront of the selection.”
Man of Mystery
A late addition to my board has been James Triantos, a SS (and RHP) out of Madison HS in Virginia. Triantos (SS, Madison HS) deserves some more publicity. His contact rate of 94% contact rate topped prep players in the showcase circuit last year with a similar max EV as Will Taylor, Harry Ford, and Colson Montgomery. Traintos has quite an arm and has good run times. He hails from Cubs area scout (and 2020 Stan Zielinski Scout of the Year) Billy Swoope’s territory. I also don’t think it would surprise me to hear the Cubs very interested in Triantos with an early selection. From my latest mock: “If there’s one player who could be this year’s Nick Yorke (who was a surprise mid-first round selection), I’ll say it is James Triantos.” Bryan and I spent a good bit of time analyzing his swing and video before agreeing that we planned to consider him at pick 56.
GM Bryan Smith in action picking at 21
21st Selection: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State
Our shortlist of available players heading into pick 21 included (in no particular order): Ryan Cusick (RHP, Wake Forest), Jud Fabian, Will Bednar (RHP, Mississippi State), and Colson Montgomery (SS, Southridge High School). Ultimately, Will Bednar was too good to pass up. He ranked 12th on my board and similar for Bryan. Bryan locked in the pick on the Prospects Live Mock google doc. Bednar’s key qualities match up well with qualities the Cubs have gravitated towards in recent years.
Bednar brings a low-to-mid 90s fastball (tops at 95) along with an above-average slider and a solid curve and changeup. The fastball has late arm-side life, which benefits overall pitch movement, but can cause him to miss to his arm side (inside to righties). His slider is his best secondary with a good sharp break. The curveball and changeup are a tad behind his other offerings. However, this is a four-pitch pitcher with a starter’s build from the SEC. Even more, Bednar boasts good extension, which is a metric that some teams (like the Cubs) focus on in their draft models. The selection happens around the 1:48:00 mark in the stream.
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56th Selection: James Triantos, SS, Madison High School
Our second-round selection was the most challenging. As Bryan and I reconvened at pick 50 to hammer out our selection, we had a larger group of players on our boards. The top four players in our rankings were Thatcher Hurd (RHP, Mira Costa HS), Josh Hartle (LHP, Reagan HS), Andrew Abbott (LHP, Virginia), and James Triantos (SS, Madison HS). Other players considered for the pick included Ben Kudrna (RHP, Blue Valley Southwest HS), Ian Moller (C, Dubuque Wahlert HS), Ky Bush (LHP, St. Mary’s College), and Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP/SS, Nebraska). After we selected Bednar in the first round, Bryan and I discussed who we preferred at pick 56. I am an enormous fan of both Thatcher Hurd and Josh Hartle, who I profiled as ideal Cubs pitching targets. However, Bryan agreed that we had an opportunity to have a fun selection and one that both matches up with Cubs’ drafting tendencies and that could generate some great discussion. Bryan was gracious to let me make the selection and hop on the video to discuss our mystery man and rising prospect, James Triantos. The selection happens around the 3:58:00 mark.
Wrap Up and Next Steps
Ultimately I loved who we brought in during our two picks in this mock. Both Bednar and Triantos represent players that match skills and metrics that the Cubs organization has targeted in prior drafts. I can’t wait for the actual MLB Draft, where we can dive into 20 rounds of talent. Greg Huss, Jimmy Nelligan, and I will be hosting this year’s MLB Draft Special on The Rant Live, beginning with the first pick and continuing about 30 minutes after the Cubs selection. And once the 2021 Draft ends, I’ll be turning my attention to the next class of Draft prospects. In between, you’re going to see a lot more Cubs minor league content.
It’s been a blast to have the opportunity to analyze this Draft class as I’ve started Ivy Futures, and while it’s been successful, I’ve also learned a lot along the way to improve when I start next year’s rankings. Thanks for joining me on this journey.
So much of this draft season is still in flux and rumors are flying fast. It is sometimes hard to differentiate real intel from info put out by teams as a smokescreen. This mock is a projection of where things will stand in July and covers the entire first round and competitive balance round A (36 picks in all). There will be a few surprises in this mock, because surprises happen every year during the draft. These picks are still held to the same standard that I attempt to employ: source information, match organization trends, and mirror historical picks. I’ll make one more mock draft for IvyFutures.com that should come out prior to the draft.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
Henry Davis, C, Louisville
There’s a significant amount of chatter the Pirates will take the player who offers the best deal from among the Davis, Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawler, and Jack Leiter quartet. Ultimately that is likely Henry Davis, who not only could succeed at catcher, but has the type of bat that allows a team to seriously consider playing him in the outfield. Davis is no consolation prize. He’s more than qualified to be the number one overall pick this season.
2. Texas Rangers
Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (HS)
The Rangers have had a significant presence at Kahlil Watson’s more recent performances. It’s hard to tell whether that is related to North Carolina’s season just simply running later or whether it’s real heat for Watson in particular. But Watson has been coming on strong and is a great bet to hit long-term. His steep bat path offers solid power and hit tools at the next level.
3. Detroit Tigers
Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (HS)
The Tigers have had tremendous success targeting college talent and their board could skew so that Rocker, Davis, or a college outfielder could interest the organization. However it’s been speculated that the Tigers love Mayer. It’s not hard to imagine Detroit being willing to pay a price to get the stud shortstop at third in the draft. Some projections identify Mayer as having the best hit tool in the class (I still have Peyton Stovall as slightly better than Mayer). The young shortstop also offers a future solid average or better defensive grade.
4. Boston Red Sox
Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
The Fangraphs duo of Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein noted rumors of Jack Leiter trying to land in Boston and the Red Sox being all too willing to make that happen. I very much buy that chatter. At some point Leiter may not have much to improve upon like some teams may want, but his floor is already so high. There is still some room for improvement, especially related to his curveball. He could be up in the Red Sox rotation sometime in 2022 and he still has a legitimate argument to be the top college arm since Stephen Strasburg.
5. Baltimore Orioles
Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (HS)
Baltimore rocked many 2020 mocks when they took Heston Kjerstad with the 2nd overall pick in a money-saving gambit. Orioles GM, Mike Elias, spent his time in the Astros front office where Houston consistently employed that strategy (most notably in 2012 when they paired up Carlos Correa and used the savings for Lance McCullers). I expect the Orioles to do the same this season and have heard them connected with Harry Ford. This may be the high point for Ford (I haven’t heard him associated any higher). Ford offers an exciting array of tools. The biggest question for teams is whether to play him at catcher or let him move quicker at another position. He has the athleticism and bat to succeed all around the diamond.
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6. Arizona Diamondbacks
Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (HS)
Arizona can be very prep heavy, but unlike several teams, age doesn’t have as much weight into their draft model with selections like Bryce Jarvis, Brennan Malone, and Drey Jameson all slightly older than their classmates. Enter Jordan Lawler who is also a strong bet to stay at shortstop for a long time though will be almost 19 when the draft arrives. While it may surprise some to see Lawler fall to six, it’s a very real possibility. Arizona was heavily tied to shortstops in the 2020 draft and you can bet they’d run to the podium for this selection.
7. Kansas City Royals
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
The Royals have had the most success with high school hitters and college arms. The Royals also have shown success taking talented players that “fall” to them in the draft. Rocker, House, Watson, all make sense and so could Jackson Jobe. The Royals are building a formidable pitching staff and plan to compete soon. Rocker is a volatile prospect who can look like an ace one day and struggle the next. He’s also pitching significantly more innings this season so the fastball velocity variance may simply be a by product of adjusting to a challenging schedule.
8. Colorado Rockies
Brady House, 3B, Winder-Barrow (HS)
Colorado has been willing to take a high school talent if the option presented itself, but is generally focused on going the college route in the first rough. They have been most often associated with college players so far, but Brady House being available would be very enticing to Colorado. The draft really starts to open up here with teams having very different valuations on players. This mock has Brady House who sports some hitting metrics related to bat path and max exit velocity that are very impressive.
9. Los Angeles Angels
Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork (HS)
The Angels are a wild card and could go in any number of ways. Will Taylor has been associated with the club. And the Angels have been in see Jackson Jobe (RHP; Heritage Hall, HS), Bubba Chandler (RHP/SS; North Oconee HS), and Frank Mozzicato (LHP; East Catholic HS). The point is that the Angels are very willing to take a prep talent here. I forecast the multisport South Carolina prep outfielder, Will Taylor, to be the pick. Taylor combines an athletic profile with excellent hitting data from the showcase circuits. The thought is that Taylor will require a higher price to buy him out his Clemson commitment to play baseball and line up as the slot receiver on the football team, however the prevailing thought is that the price isn’t prohibitive. While I won’t speculate on signability figures, a team drafting this high could even offer a discount from their bonus pool and still put out a $4 million dollar deal.
10. New York Mets
Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS
New York has leaned prep talent in recent years building out a solid group in the lower levels of the minors. High school righthanders carry an inherent risk in the draft so that is always a consideration. Jobe is on the rise with chatter Detroit at pick three is interested. Even teams normally wary of prep pitchers have to be at least monitoring the situation. Jobe is largely seen as a pitcher at the next level, but he had some success as his team’s shortstop as well so his added versatility does mitigate a small portion of risk seen with prep pitchers. He will show three above-average to plus pitches and there are some evaluators who have him as the top pitcher in the class long-term (high school and college).
11. Washington Nationals
Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina
Williams only threw three innings in 2020 due to a broken finger and COVID-19, however he was dominant this past season including a dominant 7 1/3 innings, 7 hits, 2 unearned runs, with a 13/2 K/BB line in the Super Regionals against Vanderbilt. Williams showcases an exceptional fastball with elite velocity (95-99 mph) and movement patterns. His breaking pitches (curveball and slider are both plus and above-average respectively). His fourth pitch is his changeup and that is more inconsistent, but has been coming on of late. It flashes plus as well. Simply, Gavin Williams is coming and should be flying up draft boards. Recent communication suggested teams are wary of his injury history, but this feels nebulous and hardly in line with how teams were clamoring to draft Garret Crochet in 2020 after he threw 4 1/3 innings and had an active shoulder injury. I believe a team is going to draft Gavin Williams early and a team like Washington who isn’t known as an elite pitching development organization should feel comfortable taking Williams and letting him run out there. Gunnar Hoglund, Kumar Rocker, and Jackson Jobe could be in play here as well.
12. Seattle Mariners
Matt McLain, SS/OF, UCLA
Seattle appears to be focused on college bats so any of the McLain, Cowser, Frelick trio could all be options. McLain offers sure production at the next level. There are some scouts that feel he can handle shortstop in pro ball, thought most I’ve talked with feel it’s a 2B or OF profile. Ty Madden may be an option here as well. The Mariners had success with Emerson Hancock who entered 2020 in the 1-1 discussion before slipping to 6 with similar complaints about his fastball. Hancock has since soared up prospect rankings with a few pitching development modifications.
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13. Philadelphia Phillies
Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
Frelick may not have elite upside, but he looks like a fairly sure bet to make it to the majors where could succeed as a high contact centerfielder (or second baseman). His run tool is about a 65. I do wonder if he is moved around at the next level. He has logged time at 2B and SS in the FCBL summer league in 2020. The fact that he is more of a “sure-thing” and the lack of college bats makes it likely he ends up somewhere in the top 10, but sometimes the board falls a certain way. From my previous mock, “And come on, you know you want a guy named “Sal” to end up in Philly”.
14. San Francisco Giants
Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
Cowser has average or better tools across the board and while he played for the relatively small, Sam Houston State, he played for USA baseball and is well-known to scouts. San Francisco has been connected to all of the college hitters (Frelick, Cowser, and McLain) along with Jordan Wicks this draft cycle. I still lean to them taking one of the college bats if they have that option.
15. Milwaukee Brewers
Matthew Mikulski, LHP, Fordham
Mason McRae first linked Matthew Mikulski as an arm to watch in the top 20 picks for a significant cost savings. The fit is perfect here between Milwaukee and Mikulski who sports excellent pitching metrics. Milwaukee could also snag Jordan Wicks, who many regard as the top lefthander in the draft class.
With three picks in the first two rounds, Milwaukee has a lot of money to work with to handle tough signs. The team also had no problem taking a hitter with a challenging swing. Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee’s first round pick in 2020) was one of the most talented players in last year’s draft, but he slid due to a choppy swing. It’s rumored that Benny Montgomery (OF; Red Land, HS) could be a tough sign and he has a significant hitch in his swing that comes and goes. In this mock, the Brewers are in a position to save a significant amount of pool money with this pick (and take a affordable player in the comp round) before splurging on Montgomery with a later pick. Benny Montgomery has the potential to compete with Mitchell to determine who should man centerfield in a few years with top the charts athleticism.
16. Miami Marlins
Bubba Chandler, RHP/SS, North Oconee HS
Chandler is a high-upside impact talent who could succeed as either a pitcher or as a shortstop, where his rocket arm gives him a weapon. Scouts are mixed as to whether he should commit to pitching or hitting, but it appears there’s more of a push for him to pitch. As a pitcher, he throws a plus fastball and curveball, but will show off both a slider and changeup. Miami excels in developing changeups so it’s not hard to envision Chandler settling in as a four-pitch guy with three above-average or better offerings. Miami has no issue dreaming on upside. Chandler likely needs to go fairly high to convince him to give up his football aspirations at Clemson, where he is a top recruit to play quarterback. Miami has three early picks (31 and 52) and is armed with some of the most money in the class.
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17. Cincinnati Reds
Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois
Trey Sweeney does everything you could want in a hitter with upper echelon exit velocities, as well as contact and chase rates. He keeps getting named with teams in the 20s in the draft, but could offer an immense value to a team higher at a discount. Cincinnati has three picks in the first 35 selections and a value play here early could allow the Reds to do big things in this draft.
18. St. Louis Cardinals
Spencer Schwellenbach, SS/RHP, Nebraska
The Cardinals have shown the willingness to take developmental prospects and, along with that, two-way players. Schwellenbach’s likely future lies on the mound where he got a chance in 2021 to showcase three pitches. His fastball and slider both are plus. Despite not throwing many innings, scouts feel he has the ability to start at the next level.
19. Toronto Blue Jays
Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State
Bednar may not be here this late in the draft, but some team is going to get a stud. He’ll barely be 21 years old and is already showcasing upper-level stuff. His fastball generates whiffs, especially up in the zone and his slider is plus as well. Young, successful SEC aces don’t last long in drafts, especially when they have impressive pitch metrics. Toronto reaps the benefits here in this mock. The Blue Jays are also associated with a host of higher-upside players like Anthony Solometo, Jay Allen, Jud Fabian, and Joe Mack.
20. New York Yankees
Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
The Yankees have shown a willingness to take injured pitchers early in the draft. Hoglund was a top 10 (possibly top 5) overall selection in the draft prior to his injury. Andrew Painter has been associated with the Yankees for awhile now as well. He entered the draft cycle as the top overall prep pitcher, but he showed four average or better pitches (but no plus offerings) this season. If the Yankees go with someone like Joe Mack or Trey Sweeney, it’s possible that the Yankees try to find some slot savings here to try to sign Jaden Hill in the second round.
21. Chicago Cubs
Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge (HS)
I featured Colson Montgomery in my most recent Draft hitting targets for the Cubs. Montgomery plays a solid SS, but may move over to third in professional ball. He has the arm to thrive at the hot corner if needed. The hitting data is the most exciting aspect of Montgomery as a first round prospect. In the showcase circuit last year, Montgomery put up a similar max exit velo to Kahlil Watson, Harry Ford, Will Taylor, and Peyton Stovall, while posting a solid 80% contact rate and only a 17% chase rate. All three of those figures stand up with some of the top players in the class. Montgomery projects for above-average hit and power down the line.
Colson Montgomery (2021 IN) with a double to the pull side gap in his first at bat. Long frame, good leverage and extension, big power potential #WWBAWorlds#Indiana commit pic.twitter.com/Yl2r4RGKHK
Other players linked to the Cubs include Trey Sweeney (mentioned above), Jud Fabian (OF, Florida), Will Taylor (above), Mike McGreevy (RHP, UCSB), Anthony Solometo (LHP, Bishop Eustace HS). But in an effort to add to the conversation, James Triantos (SS, Madison HS) deserves some more publicity. Triantos sported a 94% contact rate in the showcase circuit last year (tops in the class) with a similar max EV as Will Taylor, Harry Ford, and the aforementioned Colson Montgomery. He did see his chase rate in a higher tier, but in the same range as Jordan Lawler (23%). Traintos has quite an arm and has good run times. He hails from Cubs area scout (and 2020 Stan Zielinski Scout of the Year) Billy Swoope’s territory. If there’s one player who could be this year’s Nick Yorke (who was a surprise mid-first round selection), I’ll say it is James Triantos.
22. Chicago White Sox
Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks (SS)
The White Sox have been all over high school players recently. Most notably the Sox have been heavy on Colson Montgomery and fellow prep SS, Max Muncy (no relation to the big-leaguer). With Montgomery off the board to the Northsiders, Max Muncy is the selection. Wes Kath (3B, Desert Mountain HS) is another name mentioned in association with the White Sox.
23. Cleveland Baseball Team
Carson Williams, SS, Torrey Pines (HS)
Cleveland heavily factors in age to their draft model and Carson Williams is an impressive high school infielder with age on his side. Carson Williams is one of the many prep shortstops who should go high in this class. He will turn 18 only a few weeks before the draft, so his age will appeal to some teams who heavily factor it into their model. Williams is hit over power and a sure bet to stay at SS long term. He has a strong arm. Williams also dabbled on the mound, but it sounds like he’s more likely to stay on the infield. Williams showed good contact rates in the showcase circuit.
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24. Atlanta Braves
Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
Madden is frequently linked to teams higher in the first round. On the surface that makes sense as he’s been very successful this season, including his recent College World Series performance. But there has been significant questions related to Madden’s fastball shape. His fastball has a natural cut dynamic without intending to do so. Effectively it’s a pitch in the middle and while additional movement can be a positive on the surface, there are teams that actually view that as a ding on an otherwise stellar resume. It’s a fairly similar profile to Cade Cavalli, who went 23rd overall, but was frequently linked to teams in the early teens. Cavalli ultimately went to a team who perceives things through more of a traditional scouting lens in Washington (which is one of the reasons they’ve been linked to Madden at 11). But that is all to put into context that Madden is a very good pitcher. He could provide great value to Atlanta here.
25. Oakland Athletics
Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
Jordan Wicks has been firmly listed as the top college lefty in the class during the draft cycle largely on the success of an above-average fastball (plays up due to deception) and a supremely impressive changeup. While his pitching metrics won’t blow you away, they’re solid and he’s polished. A team in contention, like Oakland, should expect him up relatively soon.
26. Minnesota Twins
Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
Jud Fabian has otherworldly talent, but the Ks just kept piling up. Even after he made a mid-season adjustment, the Ks crept back. He settled in around 29% K% for the year, which is way too high for most teams. But Fabian is still a premier athlete and defender in centerfield with above-average to plus power. Minnesota has shown a willingness to deal with strikeouts at the expense of power before.
27. San Diego Padres
Lonnie White, OF, Malvern Prep (HS)
Look for the Padres to take a player with impressive metrics (pitching or hitting). Lonnie White gets the nod here after he demonstrated some of the best batted ball data in the showcases last year. He reigned supreme in max exit velocity with a solid contact rate. His chase rate was 23% (a tad high, but not outrageous), which was similar to Jordan Lawler. Peyton Stovall out of Haughton HS in Louisiana could be another name to watch here.
28. Tampa Bay Rays
Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace (HS)
I’ve had Tampa Bay linked to Solometo since the first mock draft so there’s no sense in deviating now. Solometo is a left hander with a funky arm action from the Northeast. The Rays haven’t shied away from any component of that profile before. Tampa Bay places added value on incorporating different looks from their pitching staff. Solometo is primarily a two-pitch guy and could stand to improve his changeup, but that’s hardly an unusual statement about cold-weather arms. The Rays brass has been spotted at several games for fellow northeast prep, Joshua Baez, and he could be in play for TB.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers
Gage Jump, LHP, JSerra Catholic (HS)
The Dodgers have shown a willingness to take undervalued talents. Gage Jump from the pitching side is a solid example of that. Shy of six-foot, the high school lefthander demonstrates success with an elevated fastball that plays up even higher due to a lower vertical approach angle. The long-term question is “will Gage Jump be a starter?” Scouts are mixed, but if he’s taken this high, a team will certainly try. He’s an athletic pitcher who would absolutely be in a great organization to succeed (Rays and Padres would be two other phenomenal fits for Jump). Conner Norby, Alex Mooney, Tommy Mace, Ryan Cusick, and Ky Bush could all be names to watch here.
30. Cincinnati Reds
Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic (HS)
Kiley McDaniel ($) of ESPN first linked Jay Allen (and later James Wood) to the Reds. Here in this mock, Cincinnati is able to get both in part due to the selection of Sweeney at pick 17. Allen has average or better tools across the board with some scouts feeling like those skills will only improve as he focuses exclusively on baseball.
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31. Miami Marlins
Tommy Mace, RHP, Florida
Mace could have been drafted last year, but had a price in mind and headed back to Florida. He’s looked good this year, but now probably represents a value play to teams in the late first/early second round. After selecting Bubba Chandler in the first round, Miami is in a position to take a quick-to-the-majors arm at a bit of a discount.
32. Detroit Tigers
Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian (HS)
Detroit should still have considerable funds to take another big swing after picking third overall. They’ve been tied to prep SS Alex Mooney, who could be available here as well. Even if they take a prep SS with their first pick, I wouldn’t rule out Mooney later, but in this mock, Detroit doesn’t have to make that choice. Here the Tigers pick up Painter to add to their future pitching options.
33. Milwaukee Brewers
Aaron Zavala, OF, Oregon
Brewer scouts were all over Aaron Zavala at the NCAA regionals in Eugene and he showed off a solid swing at the dish. His name has been creeping up boards in recent weeks. He dealt with a shoulder injury earlier in the season, but looked impressive in his return. His swing is geared towards teams that place a heavy emphasis on hitting models.
34. Tampa Bay Rays
Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
Cusick needs some refinement, but if any profile is reminiscent of Garret Crochet from 2020, it’s Cusick. He could potentially help a team win this season out of the pen before transitioning back to starting next season. There aren’t really any better teams for someone with Cusick’s stuff to end up with than Tampa Bay where their impressive pitching development infrastructure combined with their willingness to be flexible with innings would give Cusick a leg up.
35. Cincinnati Reds
James Wood, OF, IMG Academy (HS)
James Wood is a bit of an enigma. On somedays he flashes all-star potential and on others he looks lost. He is committed to Mississippi State and could be a tough sign. In this mock, Cincinnati’s selection of Mikulski paves the way for the Reds to sign overslot selections.
36. Minnesota Twins
Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East (HS)
Mack could easily be an earlier selection in the first round, but if he makes it down to here, Minnesota should consider themselves lucky. The Twins are often associated with college bats, but having taken one earlier take the prep catcher with the best likelihood of staying at the position in the class.
The Chicago Cubs of the Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer era was built largely on the backs of elite hitters taken in the first round. Albert Almora, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ, and Nico Hoerner experienced varying levels of success from role players to MVP, but each first-round hitter drafted from 2012-2018 made the major leagues. While every fan dreams of filling out the an All-star team with the Cubs starting lineup, it’s important to remember that even just receiving major league contributions from each of those picks is a remarkable success. That doesn’t even take into account of the ultimate goal (winning the World Series), which was finally accomplished in 2016.
But this is no time to rest on laurels and the organization dramatically adjusted organizational philosophies starting in 2018. This involved targeting players with a higher upside/risk. These players with a higher variance (between their low and higher projections) have been immensely valuable to the organization. Look for the Cubs to target players that fit that category during the upcoming MLB draft.
Disclaimer: Every major league organization uses some form of draft model and metrics to compare and rank both hitters and pitchers. This isn’t meant to reverse-engineer the Cubs draft model, but rather to highlight a few components of that model that may pertain to players selected. Teams also have access to far more biodynamic and proprietary data.
Hitting Factors to Consider
Athleticism
Every team wants athletes, but the players the Cubs have targeted in the last few years have trended to showcase more athleticism at the expense of polish, especially outside of the first round. Specific hitters like Brennen Davis, Cole Roederer, Ethan Hearn, and Jordan Nwogu are some notable examples. The Cubs have also targeted multi sport athletes, which is a good marker for well-rounded athleticism.
Positional Considerations
While the Cubs have targeted shortstops in the past few years, You Can’t Have Too Many Shortstops. It’s not impossible to see the Cubs target one of the immensely talented high school shortstops in what is viewed as possibly the best draft class of high school shortstops ever. However, there are also a bevy of high school outfielders and catchers very worthy of being drafted in the top three rounds. Unfortunately this is largely seen as a disappointing college hitter class. That doesn’t mean the Cubs won’t take a college hitter early, just that it will be more of a scouting challenge. College outfielders get most of the publicity in the first round, however there are a number of infielders who should find themselves drafted in rounds 1-3.
Age Considerations
All organizations include age to some extent into how they evaluate players, especially in extremes. A player who is 19 years old in high school may offer less growth than a 17 year old. Certain organizations factor age very little into their draft models (Arizona) and others are notorious for heavily factoring it in (Cleveland). The Cubs are largely in the middle of the pack. Ultimately, I wouldn’t heavily weigh age when it comes to identifying players the Cubs may target.
Contact Skills
The Cubs have prioritized players with strong bat-to-ball skills in upper rounds of the last several drafts. Players like Ed Howard, Nico Hoerner, and Chase Strumpf were some notable examples of players who showed excellent bat-to-ball skills. Every organization wants player who make contact, however it should be noted that the Cubs have prioritized hit tools over power.
Swing Changes
The Cubs heavily invested in their hitting infrastructure. Justin Stone and the hitting department showed remarkable success with Brennen Davis and the Cubs have not shied away from drafting players who need to have their swing reworked (Ed Howard and Jordan Nwogu). Though the Cubs are not alone on this island, not every organization is comfortable devoting significant financial resources to players who need a reworked swing.
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High School Hitters
Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork (HS)
Ivy Futures Report: Will Taylor may seem like a prospect on the rise, but he had an excellent showcase circuit last year. Taylor showed off the best contact rate (by a good amount) and chase rate (by a bit over Peyton Stovall). Taylor is set to play baseball and football at Clemson, but from all accounts Taylor appears signable if drafted early. Taylor is supremely athletic and is a plus-plus runner who should be able to stick in CF long-term.
Cubs connections: Taylor definitely fits the athleticism picture to a tee. His bat-to-ball skills are very well-regarded. Taylor is a good bet to stay up the middle in CF. Also, Taylor has specifically been linked to the Cubs by both Keith Law and Jim Callis. Bryan Smith from Bleacher Nation also outlined his thoughts on Taylor here.
— Diamond Prospects (@diamondprospect) May 6, 2021
Colson Montgomery, SS, Holland (HS)
2021 SS Colson Montgomery (IN) just looks the part. Standing 6’4”, 200 with wide shoulders and a strong lower half. Swing shows easy raw pop and produces 95+ MPH exit velos on the regular. 2/2 today with a moonshot HR and this 1B below. #WWBAWorldspic.twitter.com/Q01cHQq8a4
Ivy Futures Report: Montgomery is an exciting high school shortstop that appears to be on the rise. In showcases last summer, Montgomery showed off the rare combined traits of a high contact and low chase rates, while also hitting the ball hard. Scouts are mixed as to whether he can stick at shortstop, but he has more than enough arm if he needed to move to third base. He also shows off enough defensive instincts to allow a team to send him out at SS in pro ball.
Cubs connections: Colson Montgomery may end up moving over to third base, but the Midwest shortstop brings both an athletic profile and the ability to combine bat-to-ball skills and power. His future above-average projections in both hit and power is similar to Ed Howard’s.
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Benny Montgomery, Red Land (HS)
Ivy Futures Report: Perhaps the most toolsy prospect in the entire draft, Montgomery’s main knock has been a hitch in his swing that appeared to go away before reappearing in recent games. Montgomery possesses great defense in CF with a plus arm and plus-plus run times. He’ll also show off above-average raw power. A team that believes it can iron out Montgomery’s swing will likely take him high.
Cubs connections: The presence of Justin Stone as the Cubs Director of Hitting should provide confidence in ironing out Montgomery’s swing. Montgomery may go higher than 21 (where the Cubs select), but if he’s there on the board he very well may present the best balance of floor and high upside.
Another no-doubt bomb from Red Land HS outfielder Benny Montgomery. He's off to a roaring start this spring. It's easy to dream on the run tool, the bat speed, and the frame. Montgomery might have one of the highest pure ceilings in the 2021 draft class. #MLBDraftpic.twitter.com/EXGYXQuVke
Ivy Futures Report: Malakhi Knight uses his quiet hitting stance to cover the plate well. He is more hit (50) over power, (45) but Knight can barrel the ball. He’s comfortable in centerfield and looks like he has solid instincts. Knight’s 6’3″ 200 lb frame should add some good weight as he grows. That growth may lead to him moving to RF, but he boasts a strong arm that should allow him to thrive in a corner if needed.
Cubs connections: Knight definitely fits that athleticism and raw talent profile that the Cubs have selected recently. Knight’s hit over power profile fits with the organization’s past precedents. He may be a round 2-3 target, but a UCLA commitment likely means he won’t come cheap.
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College Hitters
Trey Sweeney, SS/3B, Eastern Illinois
Ivy Futures Report: Sweeney is a big time pop-up prospect, who sports big hitting data. Sweeney both hits the ball hard and also does not whiff often. He plays SS for Eastern Illinois University, but is a likely 3B (or even 2B) at the next level. Some organizations may shy away from Sweeney due to his program strength or just because they weren’t able to get enough evaluators in to see him to draft Sweeney high enough. Sweeney has a chance for an above-average hit and power tool.
Cubs connections: After investing in Ed Howard, the Cubs are a good bet to trust their Midwest area scouts. Sweeney’s ability to hit the ball hard while not striking out in bunches stands out in a weaker college hitting class.
Ivy Futures Report: A likely above-average CF at the next level, Fabian has consistently performed against older competition. He checks off all the boxes as an up-the-middle defender, performer using wood bats on the cap, and solid hitting mechanics. This spring, his swing and miss has kept a K% way too high to be the top talent in the draft, but he’s normalized around 29%, which is still high, but may convince a team to invest. He may be better off going back to school to be in the 2022 draft.
Cubs Connections: If the Cubs feel they can adjust Fabian’s swing, they could have a superstar, but that’s a big “If”. He’s an up the middle, athletic talent, but comes with bigger risks than most college hitters.
Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
Ivy Futures Report: Plays SS at a premier program, McLain is a likely 2B or OF at the next level. He utilizes a contact approach from the right hand side, but strikes the ball well. An offensively strong MLB organization may make changes to his swing to allow him to drive the ball. Still he’s not a slap hitter and capable of driving the ball and probably has average power right now. Hit tool will be critical to be above-average to succeed.
Cubs connections: He’s unlikely to make it to pick 21, but McLain has some fans in the Cubs organization. McLain is a safe college bat from an advanced program, a profile that the Cubs organization from prior years would have been all over.
Ivy Futures 