“What is the optimal strategy in this year’s draft for the Cubs?”
There are countless different “ideal options” in the current landscape of the MLB Draft. Since the first year of the 10-round bonus pool draft format in 2012, we’ve seen teams be creative in how they stretch their imposed financial constraints to get the most talent out of the draft. For a breakdown in how the 2021 draft operates, check out the Chicago Cubs Draft Primer, but here’s a quick summary.
Since these bonus allotments aren’t fixed (only a guideline), the draft is really separated into two drafts. The first 10 rounds becomes its own beast with teams strategically drafting certain players to “save money” for higher priced picks. Often, this involves drafting players in the latter half of the first 10 rounds who are seniors in college and lack leverage in negotiations.”
Ivy Futures Draft Primer
A special thanks to David Elliott (@Davidrelliott) for the suggestion for the article
Disclaimer: I reference the signability of players casually, but these conjectures are based entirely on speculation and reports by draft analysts. No financial figure should be interpreted as a specific figure or information gathered from a player or advisor.
Round 1, Pick 21: James Triantos, SS, Madison HS
Slot figure $3,132,300; approximate signing $2.7 million Savings $432,300 Report: I previously wrote that if any player in this draft provided a profile similar to last year’s surprise first-round pick, Nick Yorke, that it was Triantos. Additionally, I believe James Triantos ranks high on the Cubs board. This is far from the consensus, but in this scenario, Triantos offers an a slot savings deal while bringing in a player that had some of the strongest batted-ball data on last year’s showcase circuit. Triantos is from Cubs area scout Billy Swoop’s territory and he’s rising on draft boards. Ultimately, more scouts view him as a SS/3B long-term. He may be the best high school hitter to come out of Virginia in the past five years, according to Prospects Live’s Draft Director, Joe Doyle.
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Round 2, Pick 56: Jackson Linn, OF, Cambridge Rindge and Latin
Slot figure $1,276,400; approximate signing $1.8 million Savings -$523,600 Report: With the money saved from the pick at 21, the Chicago Cubs take a chance at another rising high school bat, Jackson Linn. The outfielder produced big time exit velocities at the MLB Draft Combine. He is a power bat that also shows off a plus-plus arm (hit 98 mph off the mound). He has a smooth easy stroke with a consistent hitting pattern. The Cambridge Rindge and Latin player has teams interested in the second and third rounds, with Baltimore at 41 offering a high water mark for him. This mock sends Linn to the Cubs for the 41st pick’s value.
Round 3, Pick 93: Grant Holman, RHP, California
Slot Figure $627,900; approximate signing $500k Savings $127,900 Report: California’s Grant Holman is an upside prospect in this year’s draft. He is a recent convert to pitching and utilizing a long extension (over 7′), which boosts the perceived velocity (the ball looks faster to the hitter because the ball is released closer to the plate) on the pitch. His secondaries don’t play as well as his 92-95 fastball, but his split-change and slider show flashes of being better than average. The fastball incorporates heavy sink on the pitch, which is a fastball characteristic the Cubs have historically liked. This is another selection where the Cubs invest in a large, athletic player who boasts characteristics they like and features an impressive ceiling.
Round 4, Pick 123: Denzel Clarke, OF, Cal State Northridge
Report: Clarke is a name on the rise after his stellar performance at the MLB Draft Combine. He is a big power/speed threat at the next level. And he uses that speed to be a strong centerfielder (Big West’s Co-Defensive Player of the Year in 2021). Clarke’s power is still raw, but it appears after his performance in the MLB Draft Combine, that he’s starting to realize that power. Clarke is a mammoth of a man, standing 6’5″ and 220 pounds. He’s gaining a lot of buzz and should go on day two of this year’s draft.
Round 5, Pick 153: Rohan Handa, LHP, Yale
Slot Figure $343,400; approximate signing $343,400 Savings $0 Report: The Hartford Courant put out an incredible article on Handa who is a big-time pop-up arm. The Yale pitcher remade himself this past season and is intriguing teams with upper 90s velocity and plus slider. No one knows where to place him in the draft, but with the interest in Handa, a team is likely going to need to take him relatively early even if it is just a bullpen profile. The Cubs invested in power lefty arms in last year’s draft (Carraway and Luke Little) and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them do it again this season.
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Round 6, Pick 184: Garrett Horn, LHP, Glenn HS
Slot Figure $263,700; approximate signing $563,700 Savings -$300,000 Report: In the past several year’s the Cubs have leaned heavily on prep pitching in North Carolina. Horn may not be a familiar name but he’s a 6’2″, projectable lefthander who throws five pitches with his four seam (90-95 mph), curveball (77-81 mph), circle changeup (low to mid 80s), and cutter (87-91 mph) his primary pitches. He will mix in a two-seam fastball. Horn recently had a successful showcase at the MLB Draft Combine and I believe he’ll be on teams’ radars, including the Cubs.
Round 7, Pick 214: Wyatt Hendrie, C, San Diego State
Slot Figure $206,500; approximate signing $56,500 Savings $150,000 Report: Hendrie was the lone pick in the first ten-rounds of the draft to not sign with the Cubs during Theo Epstein’s tenure. Some believe that Hendrie’s failed signing was the sole reason for Theo Epstein to leave the club over a year later. Those aren’t people you should associate with without witnesses. Hendrie looks like a future back-up catcher with more upside. He’s a rare hitter who has almost as many walks as strikeouts and his defense looks above-average behind the plate. He may never hit for much power, but Hendrie should have success at the next level.
Round 8, Pick 244: Michael Kirian, LHP, Louisville
Slot Figure $168,500; approximate signing $168,500 Savings $0 Report: It was almost a rite of passage for a Louisville pitcher to be selected by the Chicago Cubs in the draft. Here the Cubs select a giant lefty (6’6″, 230 pounds) who still needs considerable mechanical refinement and pitch development. The Cubs have invested heavily in their high performance and performance science infrastructure and have the foundation to develop Kirian either as a starter or in the pen.
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Round 9, Pick 274: Brett Harris, 3B, Gonzaga
Slot Figure $152,300; approximate signing $52,300 Savings $100,000 Report: Brett Harris is a classic “senior sign” player from a solid program. He performed well this past season and, per scouts, showed good makeup with his teammates. At the NCAA Regionals, multiple scouts from the Oakland A’s were impressed with Harris. The defense wasn’t spectacular in that outing, but he’s a steady bat.
Slot Figure $143,900; approximate signing $43,900 Savings $100,000 Report: The Cubs were heavily linked to East Carolina’s Alec Burleson (1B) in last year’s draft before the Cardinals nabbed him in the third round. They then landed Matt Mervis in the post-draft free agency period. After year’s of avoiding the profile, I believe the Cubs see value in college first basemen. Griffin Doersching’s 20 home runs and his improving performance warrant a serious look.
Bonus Pool
Spending: $6,728,300 Savings: $51,100 Savings plus 5% overage: $390,070
Savings can be used to offer above the $125,000 threshold for players in rounds 11-20. Effectively the Cubs could bring in several $250,000 players in the later rounds since only the funds above $125,000 are counted against the pool. The Cubs did this in 2018 to great success.
Parting thoughts
Ten-round mock drafts are not built to be accurate exercises, but they are fun. It will be fascinating to see who the Cubs target early in this draft. This mock incorporates a few player demographics and qualities that I hope the Cubs target: high school talent, upside college players, premier athletes, and an emphasis on high performance/performance science.
So much of this draft season is still in flux and rumors are flying fast. It is sometimes hard to differentiate real intel from info put out by teams as a smokescreen. This mock is a projection of where things will stand in July so some players (Fabian, Leiter, Arroyo) would be taken with different selections if the draft was held in May.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (HS)
I’ve heard more talk surrounding the Pirates taking a prep talent here and Jordan Lawler is the best prep player available. There’s a strong argument to be made that Lawler is the best player in the entire draft. The “five-tool” term is thrown out endlessly, but Lawler may indeed have five-tools that project to be above-average. My only concern is a bit more swing-and-miss than you’d like to see, but he has high upside and should be able to stick at shortstop long-term. Pittsburgh is able to build for the long-haul and selecting Lawler to anchor your farm system would be a strong move for an organization that is trying to recapture the magic of 2013-2015.
2. Texas Rangers
Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (HS)
I still feel like the Rangers are a possible team that will surprise here so Henry Davis, Frelick, or a college arm could be an option here. However Mayer is the top talent on the board. The Rangers are building for the long-haul and an elite prep SS has a great track record. It’s an incredible high school shortstop class and specific teams may rank Lawler, Mayer, or Watson in any order. Here Texas can still take a player many view as solidly in the top three overall. Mayer has true all-star upside.
3. Detroit Tigers
Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
The Tigers have had tremendous success targeting college talent and their board could skew so that Rocker, Davis, or a college outfielder could interest the organization. However Leiter here is too good to pass up here and, if healthy, could be up in the Tigers rotation sometime in 2022. Leiter recently was scratch late from a start due to “workload management”. The timing of the announcement being so late has led to some skepticism as to the accuracy of the rationale for Leiter being skipped. If no serious concerns arise, it’s hard for Leiter to slide too far. He still has a legitimate argument to be the top college arm since Stephen Strasburg.
4. Boston Red Sox
Brady House, 3B, Winder-Barrow (HS)
Brady House was the most heralded prospect from the high school class for the past few seasons. In that time, scouts have had ample time to pick apart his game. House has had to face the best of the best both in his class and the surrounding ones. The pendulum appears to have shifted the other way as prospect evaluators can appreciate just how special House’s hitting ability are at present. There even a few teams that think House deserves the chance to get a run at SS before deciding if he needs to move to the hot corner. Boston has the ability to do something the organization hasn’t been able to do for years, take a superstar near the top of the draft. Rocker, Watson, Davis could all be on the table as well to the Red Sox.
5. Baltimore Orioles
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
It has been speculated that Mike Ellis won’t take a pitcher in the first round after debacles related to the selections of Brady Aiken and Mark Appel during his time in Houston. That seems wildly overexaggerated and a terrible strategy to completely eliminate all pitching from consideration. Rocker will be a fascinating player to watch in the lead up to the draft. He could easily be the first player from the class to make his debut due to his advanced slider. The fastball and changeup are no slouch either. There has been frequent consternation over Rocker’s velocity, but if he’s sitting 93-95 mph at the end of the season, he should be in a position to go high.
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6. Arizona Diamondbacks
Henry Davis, C, Louisville
Henry Davis has been on fire all season. He’s sporting a .389/.511/.671 triple slash with 11 home runs and good defense added on top. As one of the most sure-fire college bats at a premium position, he won’t last long in the draft. Unlike their high school counterparts, college catchers are a less risky demographic. Davis would be a coup for a host of teams in the top 10.
7. Kansas City Royals
Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (HS)
The Royals have had the most success with high school hitters and college arms. Kahlil Watson has top 5 potential and a beautiful swing. Scouts are less certain he can stick at shortstop, but that’s not a deal breaker for the Royals who took the supremely talented Bobby Witt Jr. and watched him blossom into a top prospect. If Rocker were to make it down to this selection, I’d guess he doesn’t make it past KC.
8. Colorado Rockies
Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
Jud Fabian entered 2021 in the discussion for top overall prospect. His ability to stick in centerfield, hit with wood bats, and succeed against advanced competition in the SEC form a young age were all promising characteristics. Unfortunately Fabian had massive issues with Ks entering the season. He’s come on as of late and his overall K% is down to 27.5% as of May. Fabian offers Colorado an advanced bat with above-average power that should patrol CF in Coors in short order. Is this a bit high for Fabian? Maybe, but by the end of the season we may be looking at him as a Top 10 pick.
9. Los Angeles Angels
Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (HS)
The Angels were rumored to be making a “reach pick” in the 2020 draft. Whether that was in an effort to punt the pick or whether it was to take a high upside high school pick they could save money on is left to your imagination. There are some rumors that Harry Ford could sneak into the Top 10 picks according to Jim Callis. That’s info that I haven’t heard, but the Angels could fit that picture. Ford is a ton of fun with supreme athleticism and a first-round HS catcher worth the risk.
10. New York Mets
Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS
High school righthanders carry an inherent risk in the draft. Between the significant injury concerns and the risk of complete flameout (Kohl Stewart and Tyler Kolek are a few of the notable misses), prep righties often tumble down draft boards. It sounds like Jobe is on the rise and even teams normally wary of prep pitchers have to be at least monitoring the situation. Jobe is largely seen as a pitcher at the next level, but he had some success as his team’s shortstop as well so his added versatility does mitigate a small portion of risk seen with prep pitchers.
11. Washington Nationals
Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
Washington will consistently take pitching risks (be it injury, signability, or character risks) in an effort to find high-impact talent. Some organizations are moving away from drafting pitchers who feature fastballs with sinking action, but Washington took Jackson Rutledge who had similar movement on his fastball. It’s also possible that Madden’s fastball is able to be optimized for more ride up in the zone and may still appeal to teams with strong pitching infrastructures. Gunnar Hoglund could be in play here.
12. Seattle Mariners
Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
Safe college bats with average or better tools always have value to organizations. Cowser stands out as one of the top options in that regard due to an overall weak college hitting class. He should be an option to slot into the Seattle outfield in a few years. Ty Madden may be an option here as well. The Mariners had success with Emerson Hancock who entered 2020 in the 1-1 discussion before slipping to 6 with similar complaints about his fastball. Hancock has since soared up prospect rankings with a few pitching development modifications.
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13. Philadelphia Phillies
Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
Frelick is more of a sure-thing when it comes to prospecting prognostications. He may not have elite upside, but he looks like a fairly sure bet to make it to the majors where could succeed as a high contact centerfielder. His run tool is about a 65. I do wonder if he is moved around at the next level. He has logged time at 2B and SS in the FCBL summer league in 2020. The fact that he is more of a “sure-thing” and the lack of college bats makes it likely he ends up somewhere in the top 10, but sometimes the board falls a certain way. And come on, you know you want a guy named “Sal” to end up in Philly.
14. San Francisco Giants
Matt McLain, SS/OF, UCLA
The Giants pick up a polished college hitter not too far from their own backyard. McLain has been raking in previous weeks and I don’t buy that a broken thumb will severely hamper his draft stock. Teams got a front row view to what McLain could do. Polished college bats are in short supply in this year’s draft. Most scouts don’t feel McLain is a shortstop at the next level, but his bat looks like it could play at 2B or in the outfield. A team that does believe he could stick at short could take him higher than the middle of the draft. Colorado and Seattle may be other landing spots for McLain. It is doubtful he falls much further than 12-14. I’d be shocked if he made it past the Cubs at 21.
15. Milwaukee Brewers
Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS
Milwaukee has not been afraid to draft a hitter in need of a swing change. Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee’s first round pick in 2020) was one of the most talented players in last year’s draft, but he slid due to a choppy swing. Montgomery has quieted down that hitch already in recent weeks and there are more teams who he would appeal to. Benny Montgomery has the potential to compete with Mitchell to determine for who should man centerfield in a few years with top the charts athleticism.
16. Miami Marlins
Will Taylor, CF, Dutch Fork(HS)
Taylor has surged up draft boards and is one of the many high upside high school talents in the class. Taylor entered the class as a contact-oriented bat with solid grade in centerfield. The main question mark was if he had enough pop in the bat to justify taking him early enough to prevent him playing baseball and football (slot receiver) at Clemson. He’s shown more explosiveness at the plate recently and done so in front of scouts and decision-makers in organizations. Miami has no issue dreaming on upside.
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17. Cincinnati Reds
Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami of OH
Cincinnati is deeply connected to pitch design with Kyle Boddy now working for the Reds. That doesn’t guarantee they’ll take a pitcher, but in this mock (and likely in July) there’s an abundance of intriguing pitching talent available at this stage of the draft. I believe that #17 to Cincinnati may be the high point for Alex Mooney (prep shortstop as well) who may consider him at 35.
18. St. Louis Cardinals
Bubba Chandler, RHP/SS, North Oconee HS
The Cardinals are willing to take a developmental prospect and can handle signability concerns. Saint Louis has also invested in two way prospects as recently as 2020. Chandler is a popular pick in the top 10 overall (the Angels could be in the market) so he may not be here when St. Louis picks at 18, but if he is, I would imagine the Cardinals organization would jump at the chance to bring him in. Chandler likely needs to go fairly high to convince him to give up his football aspirations at Clemson, where he is a top recruit to play quarterback.
19. Toronto Blue Jays
Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
Wicks is the top college lefthander though there’s work to be done. He still boasts a plus changeup and his fastball and breaking ball flash above-average. Toronto has done a great job with Alek Manoah and Nate Pearson’s development. In the right developmental organization, Wicks could be a quick-to-the-majors option for a host of competitive clubs.
20. New York Yankees
Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East (HS)
Mack boasts strong hitting metrics, which should fit well within the Yankees developmental system. New York has not shied away from selecting prep catchers in the first round (2018 Anthony Siegler). Mack has good power and a real shot to stick at C. If not, the bat can play on its own. It’s possible that the Yankees try to find some slot savings here to try to sign Jaden Hill in the second round.
21. Chicago Cubs
Michael McGreevy, RHP, UCSB
I featured Michael McGreevy as a potential Cubs target and we’ll continue with that in this mock. High school hitters are the most common demographic linked to the Cubs and I do think the organization is open to high upside selections, but I don’t think it’s a given that it will occur in the first round (see below). The high school hitting class is deep and there should be excellent talent available in the following rounds. If the Cubs feel that an ascending college arm in McGreevy is the top talent on the board, this could be the selection. The UCSB righthander has a 92-95 mph sinker and above-average slider and curveball. He throws a fourth pitch in his changeup that profiles as average. His data is rumored to be excellent and the Cubs have began to significantly target pitchers with certain data points. Sam Bachmann and Will Bednar could be targets here as well.
The natural question with the Cubs is whether they would, instead, focus on high-ceiling high school hitting talent. Though this mock is listed as what teams would more likely do, taking a high school hitter (Ford in a dream scenario) would be my personal selection. As I’ve asked around, I’ve heard conflicting comments as to what people inside and outside the organization feel the Cubs will do. No one will be tipping their hand and it is only May, but there was enough conversation around college talents that I went that way for this mock. Players to consider from the prep class include the aforementioned Harry Ford and Joe Mack. In the outfield, Will Taylor, Josh Baez, James Wood, Lonnie White, and Malakhi Knight all could be options. I don’t believe the Cubs will take a prep arm in the first round.
22. Chicago White Sox
Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
The Chicago White Sox had a remarkable success taking a college arm who had reliever questions in Garrett Crochet. By September, Crochet was leading baseball in the number of 100 mph pitches thrown. Cusick offers similar potential, albeit from the righthand side. The White Sox also had a huge presence at a Will Bednar start recently, although he may be more of a second-round target. Christian Franklin out of Arkansas also fits the White Sox M.O. and could be an option with this selection.
23. Cleveland Baseball Team
Edwin Arroyo, SS, Central Pointe Academy (HS)
Cleveland heavily factors in age to their draft model and Arroyo is a dynamic high school infielder with age on his side. He has excellent bat-to-ball skills and has succeeded against older competition. Arroyo is still developing. In a class full of dynamic high school shortstops, Arroyo’s age, switch-hitting, defense first, contact bat may entice Cleveland. Cleveland’s current President of Baseball Ops was the club’s General Manager during the 2011 draft when he selected a 17-year-old, switch-hitting, defense-first, high school shortstop. That move worked very well for both the organization and Francisco Lindor. Arroyo hasn’t been consistently mocked in the first round, but he’s been coming on of late and a team with an heavy age-weighting in a draft model like Cleveland could see him and fall in love. This is admittedly a bit of a projection pick.
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24. Atlanta Braves
Tommy Mace, RHP, Florida
Mace should be a quick-moving arm due to age and experience in the SEC. He’s refined a few points in his pitch design this spring and now looks to be going in the top two rounds. Though he’s not a huge money saving pick, Mace’s age likely allows a club to save a bit here to overslot later in the draft. Here the Braves are able to nab an arm they should be very familiar with who could make major league appearances in short order, while potentially saving to invest in the 2nd/3rd rounds.
25. Oakland Athletics
James Wood, OF, IMG Academy (HS)
Wood is a divisive prospect with a high variance in ceiling and floor. That doesn’t appeal to some teams who naturally gravitate to a more sure return on investment that a first-round pick requires in both financials and opportunity. Oakland has been willing to take significant risks in the first round multiple times in the past five years. It’s been a mixed bag on that front. Wood came into the year with whispers that he could be a top five overall pick. Those talks have largely quelled, but Wood still has impressive upside. At this point in the draft, there are some teams who would jump at the opportunity to take a player with true star potential.
26. Minnesota Twins
Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami
ADC, as he’s affectionately known, came into the season as a potential top 5 pick. He started off slow, but has picked it up as of late. Scouts are still split on whether he remains a long-term catcher, but a team drafting Del Castillo high likely would run him out there in pro ball. If he lasts longer in the draft, his value as a polished college hitter starts to even out his future defensive concerns. Minnesota has defaulted to selecting bats while worrying about defensive homes later.
27. San Diego Padres
Peyton Stovall, 2B, Haughton (HS)
While San Diego may start to factor projected proximity to the majors more in their draft model to supplement their core, the Padres still excel at taking the highest upside high school talent on the board. It’s what has built a good portion of the organizational foundation. Stovall has looked great this spring and his hit over power grades are respected by San Diego, who invested heavily in Robert Hassell III at 9th overall in 2020.
28. Tampa Bay Rays
Joshua Baez, OF, Dexter Southfield (HS)
Tampa Bay was linked to Baez at different points this spring. They haven’t been shy from drafting players from the Northeast and Baez has immense potential both at the plate and, if necessary, on the mound. Joshua Baez could be in play for a variety of teams in the middle of the first round. Baez has a commitment to Vanderbilt so that could always come into play, but I won’t speculate on signing bonus demands. Eastern Illinois’s Trey Sweeney (a SS who likely moves to 3B) also may be in consideration here, though it’s hard to tell how much helium he has at the moment.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers
Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
This pick is a bit of a mystery as a number of talented players could land in LA’s lap. Hoglund’s stock is also just as much of a mystery after he left his most recent start due to injury. Kiley McDaniel reported that he will need Tommy John surgery. In the past few years very few teams have taken significantly injured arms in the first round (Yankees in 2017 – Schmidt, San Diego in 2016 – Quantrill, and the Dodgers in 2015 – Buehler). With their pitching infrastructure and a number of young, talented arms in the pipeline, the Dodgers can afford to take a risk. Hoglund was ticketed for a selection in the top 10 prior to his injury.
As of this writing, I still have Jud Fabian 1st overall on my board, but Jack Leiter is special. He’s the best pitching prospect in the last several years. There will be some teams who shy away from a 6’0″ righthander, but this isn’t 2012. Pitchers with Leiter’s four pitch (all above average to plus) profile can dominate in baseball, especially with his low vertical approach angle. Sure, his pro starts won’t all be 16K/1BB no-hitters, but Leiter is a dynamic talent. Pittsburgh takes a pitcher with true ace potential who should quickly rise the system.
2. Texas Rangers
Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
Well that’s a surprise. Madden is pitching his way into the top 10 selection territory already. Similar to Baltimore’s selection of Kjerstad #2 overall, Texas takes a player who signs for a bit less in slot money, but who is very worthy of a high pick. Madden is a high velocity college righthander who was waiting for his curveball and changeup to show improvements in command and shape. Both are vastly improved in 2021. Ty Madden pitching three hours away should give the Rangers ample opportunity to see him in action even accounting for scouting restrictions due to COVID-19. Chris Young, in his first season as general manager, will be an intriguing element to the upper picks in this year’s draft, though Amateur Scouting director Kip Fagg stayed in his current position within the organization. Lawler, Fabian, Rocker, and Adrian Del Castillo all make sense here too. Texas is in an enviable position.
3. Detroit Tigers
Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
Detroit is building a heck of a system that looks primed to win very soon. In this mock, the Tigers don’t overthink the selection. They take the best player (in my opinion) on the board. It doesn’t hurt that Fabian has (1) consistently hit despite being one the youngest players on the field, (2) played a solid CF, (3) succeeded with wood bats. There’s swing and miss to Fabian’s game (currently has a 30% K%), but that should be just be monitored as the draft approaches. Teams shouldn’t draft for need, however Jud Fabian should be quick to the majors and plays a premium position. Another player to consider here is Henry Davis if he keeps up his torrid pace into July.
4. Boston Red Sox
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
Even casual fans of the draft may have heard Kumar Rocker’s name. He was a hot commodity in the 2018 draft but a firm commitment to Vanderbilt led him to campus. So far that decision appears to have paid off for Rocker. The Red Sox take the dynamic righthander who has some of the most MLB-ready physical and pitching qualities in the draft class. It’s hard to say if the Red Sox under Chaim Bloom will choose to pay the high price needed for Rocker, but Scouting VP, Gus Quattlebaum, has been with the organization for 10 years and has never picked higher than 7th. It makes sense for a premier organization like the Red Sox to seize the opportunity to select a player who could be in the starting rotation sometime in 2022.
5. Baltimore Orioles
Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (HS)
Mayer has a strong likelihood to be a starting caliber shortstop with good bat-to-ball skills and plus raw power. He’s an exciting talent and is in the running for top prep shortstop in a very deep class. He also has been showing off a steeper bat path through the zone. The Orioles benefit from just taking best player on the board and while I overall like Westburg and Henderson in their system, Mayer would (for me) immediately slide in as Baltimore’s top shortstop prospect.
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6. Arizona Diamondbacks
Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (HS)
Arizona can be very prep heavy, but unlike several teams, age doesn’t have as much weight into their draft model with selections like Bryce Jarvis, Brennan Malone, and Drey Jameson all slightly older than their classmates. Enter Jordan Lawler who is also a strong bet to stay at shortstop for a long time though will be almost 19 when the draft arrives. The Diamondbacks have succeeded with hitting profiles similar to Lawler, which is more geared for hit over power and Arizona was heavily tied to shortstops in the 2020 draft. In this mock, AZ doesn’t have to reach for one of the elite talents in the draft.
7. Kansas City Royals
Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami
ADC (Del Castillo) has been working out this winter with Royals catcher, Salvador Pérez. The biggest question with Del Castillo is whether a team believes he has a chance to stick behind the plate. A team drafting him this high likely believes he can be a catcher at the next level. The Royals (through Pérez) have an inside track on his behind the scenes work in that area. I have Henry Davis as the top catcher on my board, but if a team believes ADC can be an average catcher he could get drafted early. KC also has a tendency to take individuals who “fall” in a draft.
8. Colorado Rockies
Brady House, 3B, Winder-Barrow (HS)
Colorado has been willing to take a high school talent if the option present itself, but is generally focused on going the college route in the first rough. The draft really starts to open up here with teams having very different valuations on players. This mock has Brady House who sports some hitting metrics related to bat path that are very impressive.
9. Los Angeles Angels
Henry Davis, C, Louisville
The Angels took Louisville LHP Reid Detmers, who is already impressing in spring training and in this mock, they nap Detmers’ battery-mate. Davis is a name on the rise with teams. He is off to a blistering start this season driving the ball to all fields. A starting catcher with a plus hit tool (especially with some pop) from an accomplished college program is not likely to be on the board for too long.
10. New York Mets
Christian Franklin, OF, Arkansas
Franklin has all-star potential in centerfield with above-average tools almost across the board. The hit tool is a tad behind the others, but he’s a top talent that shouldn’t fall far in the draft. So far this season, Franklin is sporting a 27% K%, which is higher than you’d like in a top 10 draft pick. It’s something to monitor as players get more game action.
11. Washington Nationals
Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU
Washington will consistently take pitching risks (be it injury, signability, or character risks) in an effort to find high-impact talent. Jaden Hill represents the injury risk, but he has an electric arm. Some organizations are moving away from drafting pitchers who feature fastballs with sinking action, but Washington took Jackson Rutledge who had similar movement on his fastball. There some implicit risk in his development, however it’s hard to find a pitcher with more ceiling left on the board.
12. Seattle Mariners
Matt McLain, SS/OF, UCLA
Seattle tends to take good scouting guys and ones who fall (Hancock, Kyle Lewis). In this mock, the Mariners continue to benefit from teams above them betting on upside over security. McLain represents a very sure bet to be a big leaguer. He’s currently off to a solid, if unspectacular start to the 2021 season. Though he’s a shortstop right now, he is a likely 2B/OF at the next level. Mariners fans could see McLain in the big leagues as early as late 2023.
13. Philadelphia Phillies
Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian (HS)
Would Philadelphia make nearly the same selection two years in a row (after taking Mick Abel in 2020)? They could and Andrew Painter makes a lot of sense here. Armed with four average to plus pitches, the 6’7″ Painter ranks as my top prep pitcher. Like Mick Abel the previous year, Painter is well versed in pitch design and could quickly advance through the minors. In addition to his training and time on showcases, he spent time working with Cressey Sports Performance and had the time to meet Justin Verlander. High School right handers are a risky demographic, but this selection may be worth the risk.
14. San Francisco Giants
Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
If Matt McLain were to make it down to San Francisco, there would be a good chance he’d be the selection. Instead, the Giants wind up with another polished college bat in Frelick. Giants GM saw Ben Zobrist stand out as a leader on the Cubs both from an offensive perspective and as a steady defender in multiple positions. Frelick could be that type of player for the Giants though Sal offers the ability to play CF at the next level.
15. Milwaukee Brewers
Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
Cubs fans won’t like to admit it, but the Milwaukee Brewers have a strong data-driven pitching development team. Cusick has multiple metrics that teams gravitate towards (extension, vertical approach angle) and legitimate “stuff”. He could be long gone by the time Milwaukee picks, but if Cusick falls toward the middle of the draft, there are a bevy of teams with strong pitching infrastructures lined up to take advantage.
16. Miami Marlins
Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (HS)
Watson could go way higher than this, and in my upcoming Top 100, Watson should fit comfortably in the top 10 overall. Here, Miami takes the top talent on the board. Watson came into the season with questions as to whether he’d stick at shortstop. He appears to have quieted those concerns and has the potential to be a future all-star at a premium position long term. The prep shortstop group in this draft class is special. There could be five prep shortstops taken in the top 40 picks and it wouldn’t be a surprise.
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17. Cincinnati Reds
Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami of Ohio
Cincinnati is deeply connected to pitch design with Kyle Boddy now working for the Reds. That doesn’t guarantee they’ll take a pitcher, but in this mock (and likely in July) there’s an abundance of intriguing pitching talent available at this stage of the draft. Bachman is definitely in this category; he boasts some of the better three-pitch mix in the class. Bachman’s fastball, changeup, slider combo can be electric.
18. St. Louis Cardinals
Joshua Baez, OF, Dexter Southfield (HS)
The Cardinals are willing to take a developmental prospect and can handle signability concerns. Joshua Baez has truly immense talent albeit from a corner outfield position. He will flash plus-plus raw power and can hit mid 90s on the mound. It will take awhile, but Baez could be patrolling RF for the Cardinals for a long time.
19. Toronto Blue Jays
Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (HS)
The Blue Jays are of my favorite teams to follow in the draft. They’ve taken some of my favorite picks in last three years: Groshans, Kloffenstein, Robertson, Austin Martin, and CJ Van Eyk. In this mock, they take another impressive pick with Ford who is a dynamic talent that has a solid chance to succeed at C. If he does need to move, Ford has the bat and athleticism to play all around the diamond.
20. New York Yankees
James Wood, OF, IMG Academy
I have my doubts James Wood lasts to pick 20 in July, but if so, Yankees fans should be head over heels. He is one of a handful of players who could be legitimate two-way talents. That two-way upside hasn’t scared off the Yankees before with their selection of Anthony Seigler in 2018. The Yankees also have a track record of developing giant human beings into impactful superstars. Wood has that level of upside.
21. Chicago Cubs
Joshua Hartle, LHP Reagan HS (NC)
The Cubs have significantly changed their draft strategy in recent years, opting to select riskier picks with the hope that they could have players reach a higher ceiling. Prep pitchers certainly fall into that demographic. While he doesn’t throw with the same velocity, Hartle will evoke Garrett Crochet (who the Cubs liked in 2020) comparisons in overall ceiling and Josh Hader comps in arm angle and release. Part of those comparisons comes from the fact that Joshua Hartle boasts excellent “extension”. A pitcher’s extension refers to the distance a pitcher releases the ball relative to the pitching rubber and it is a metric that the Cubs absolutely love. Nearly all their top pitching selections in recent memory threw with well above-average extension. Hartle also will be well-scouted this spring and summer by Area Scout, Billy Swoope (2020 Cubs Stan Zielinski Scout of the Year) who is responsible for scouting numerous Cubs selections. In the high school pitching group alone, Swoope scouted DJ Herz and Koen Moreno in back-to-back years. Scouting will be heavily impacted by COVID-19 restrictions. It wouldn’t surprise to see the Cubs go back to a trusted well, especially one with metrics the organization loves.
More to come about Josh Hartle
22. Chicago White Sox
Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
The Chicago White Sox have pivoted to a competitive window in the last year. The White Sox continue their overall strategy here with a safe college hitter early and riskier demographics later in the draft. Cowser started off slow in 2021, but he’s rebounded. Cowser has average or better tools across the board that will fit in well in the White Sox system.
23. Cleveland Baseball Team
Thatcher Hurd, RHP, Mira Costa (HS)
One of my favorite prep pitchers in the draft. A year ago, Thatcher was primarily a catcher (threw about 4 innings in high school by that point). During the shutdown he experimented on the mound and took to it like a duck to water. Hurd boasts multiple metrically inclined pitches including breaking pitches that spin over 3000 RPMs. Cleveland has an incredibly strong pitching development infrastructure which can take Thatcher Hurd from raw projectable pitcher to elite talent.
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24. Atlanta Braves
Gunnar Hoglund, RHPMississippi
Atlanta picks up a Gunnar Hoglund who’s primary specialty is superb control. This spring, Hoglund’s velocity now sits in the low 90s (and topping out at 95) and he has a four pitch mix. Hoglund should be a quick-to-the-majors arm who can slide into Atlanta’s rotation.
25. Oakland Athletics
McCade Brown, RHP, Indiana
McCade Brown is rising up boards and may not last this long this July, but if he does, there are a cavalcade of teams with strong pitching infrastructures who can help Brown continue to develop his elite “stuff”. Though Brown has an injury history, it was a back injury (not arm related) and Oakland has been aggressive in previous drafts gambling on upside.
26. Minnesota Twins
Kevin Abel, RHP, Oregon State University
It feels like a lifetime ago that Kevin Abel pitched a complete game shutout to lead the Oregon State Beavers to a 2018 College World Series championship. Perhaps it was the 241 pitches in five days or perhaps it was just inherent risk with a young arm, but Abel soon missed parts of two seasons with Tommy John surgery. He’s back in a big way this year succeeding largely due to his curveball and changeup. Abel is 22 and offers a relatively safe profile. Minnesota picks up a a money-saving selection so they can splurge with their competitive balance pick. Abel is a strong bet to be a rotation candidate in a few years.
27. San Diego Padres
Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (HS)
I’ll admit this felt like cheating. I took the top high school talent on the board, (especially a pitcher) and I mocked him to the Padres. Admittedly, I do wonder if this year will be a different plan. Perhaps their board changes ever so slightly to favor more college ready talents. But in this mock, Jobe just makes so much sense. He is now, almost assuredly a pitcher over SS and features an impressive metric FB/SL combo. Jackson Jobe landing in San Diego would be very fun, except if you are a fan of a Padres’ rival.
28. Tampa Bay Rays
Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustice (HS)
It may be balmy in Tampa Bay, but the Rays aren’t shy from taking players from cold weather states. Solometo is an intriguing lefty from NJ. He’s more of a FB/SL pitcher now, but those two pitches are plus. Solometo landing with a pitching development powerhouse would be fun to watch.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers
Alex Mooney, SS, Orchard St. Lake Mary’s(HS)
LA is known as one of the strongest developmental organizations in baseball. One of the their biggest strengths is the ability to take prospects who have better hit tools and line drive swings and work with them to elevate the ball without sacrificing significant contact. Orchard Lake St. Mary’s Prep’s Alex Mooney fits that profile. Pitching talents like Florida righthander Tommy Mace and LHP Gage Jump (HS) also make sense with LA.
Ivy Futures 